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The labour market of tomorrow: projections from the Model of Occupations, Skills, and Technology (MOST)

Developed by the Conference Board of Canada on behalf of the Future Skills Centre, the Model of Occupations, SKills and Technology (MOST) is a sophisticated projection tool, designed to offer unique insights into the skills that will power Canada’s future labour markets. MOST generates detailed occupational and industry-level projections for every region in Canada.

MOST informed a study that provides insight into how the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted traditional labour demand in Canada.

  • Occupations that primarily require secondary school and/or occupation-specific training and those requiring on-the-job training were hardest hit during the pandemic while occupations typically requiring university education suffered the least. In fact, employment increased during the pandemic for many occupations requiring a high level of skill in programming, complex problem-solving, systems analysis, systems evaluation, critical thinking, and mathematics.
  • Through 2030, the strongest job gains are expected in roles like web designer and developers, database analysts and data administrators, computer engineering, architecture, finance, veterinary services, and transportation.
  • Over the next decade, jobs that typically require university education are projected to post the strongest gains, followed by jobs requiring college education, specialized training, or apprenticeship training.

Key insights

The strongest job gains in the next 10 years are expected to be in the IT, computer engineering, architecture, finance, veterinary services, and transportation fields.

While some occupations may benefit from automation, others could see job losses of close to 8 per cent by 2030.

In-demand skills will include complex problem-solving, systems evaluation, systems analysis, writing, and programming.

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