References

This database has been compiled to provide a searchable repository on published research addressing “future skills” that will be a useful tool for researchers and individuals interested in the future of work and the future of skills.

The database integrates existing bibliographies focused on future skills and the future of work as well as the results of new ProQuest and Google Scholar searches. The process of building the database also involved consultations with experts and the identification of key research organizations publishing in this area, as well as searches of those organizations’ websites. For a more detailed explanation of how the database was assembled, please read the Future Skills Reference Database Technical Note.

The current database, assembled by future skills researchers at the Diversity Institute, is not exhaustive but represents a first step in building a more comprehensive database. It will be regularly updated and expanded as new material is published and identified. In that vein, we encourage those with suggestions for improvements to this database to connect with us directly at di.fsc@ryerson.ca.

From this database, we also selected 39 key publications and created an Annotated Bibliography. It is designed to serve as a useful tool for researchers, especially Canadian researchers, who may need some initial guidance in terms of the key references in this area.

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Reference

The changing structure of work: Implications for workplace health and safety in US

The structure and organization of work are continually changing. Changes may be cyclical, reflecting economic and social conditions, including business cycles and labor market structures. Other changes, often resulting from new technologies, may be unidirectional. Whether or not the changes are temporary or permanent, employment arrangements affect worker exposures to workplace hazards and their ability to address them. In this paper, we focus on the effects on occupational safety and health (OSH) of relationships that have been described as fissured or market-mediated, including the staffing agency model, the franchised relationship, same site contracting, supply chain relationships, and contracting by a firm with many individuals. Worker safety may be affected by several factors, including economic pressures on contracted employers, the separation of control of the work environment from the employment relationship, and the short tenure of workers in some dangerous jobs. After summarizing the limited number of studies that attempt to measure the impact of these non-standard employment relationships on worker safety and health, we briefly discuss other changes in the labor market that affect OSH, and then turn to the policy and legal implications of these mediated relationships. Finally, we highlight the need for better data, safety and health surveillance, and research when employment relationships are fissured. The paper focuses on changes and strategies in the U.S. but provides some references to relevant international studies.
Reference

Firming up inequality

Earnings inequality in the United States has increased rapidly over the last three decades, but little is known about the role of firms in this trend. For example, how much of the rise in earnings inequality can be attributed to rising dispersion between firms in the average wages they pay, and how much is due to rising wage dispersion among workers within firms? Similarly, how did rising inequality affect the wage earnings of different types of workers working for the same employer—men vs. women, young vs. old, new hires vs. senior employees, and so on? To address questions like these, we begin by constructing a matched employer-employee data set for the United States using administrative records. Covering all U.S. firms between 1978 to 2012, we show that virtually all of the rise in earnings dispersion between workers is accounted for by increasing dispersion in average wages paid by the employers of these individuals. In contrast, pay differences within employers have remained virtually unchanged, a finding that is robust across industries, geographical regions, and firm size groups. Furthermore, the wage gap between the most highly paid employees within these firms (CEOs and high-level executives) and the average employee has increased only by a small amount, refuting oft-made claims that such widening gaps account for a large fraction of rising inequality in the population.
Reference

Are ideas getting harder to find?

In many growth models, economic growth arises from people creating ideas, and the long-run growth rate is the product of two terms: the effective number of researchers and their research productivity. We present a wide range of evidence from various industries, products, and firms showing that research effort is rising substantially while research productivity is declining sharply. A good example is Moore's Law. The number of researchers required today to achieve the famous doubling every two years of the density of computer chips is more than 18 times larger than the number required in the early 1970s. Across a broad range of case studies at various levels of (dis)aggregation, we find that ideas — and in particular the exponential growth they imply — are getting harder and harder to find. Exponential growth results from the large increases in research effort that offset its declining productivity.
Reference

Automation and the future of work: Scenarios and policy options

Driven by the exponential growth in computing power and the digitization of things, artificial intelligence and robotics are poised to transform the economy. While these technologies are likely to boost productivity and generate significant wealth, their potential impact on the labour market is concerning, with some estimates suggesting that nearly half of all existing jobs could be automated in the next two decades. What is almost certain is that these technologies will further increase inequality: workers with skills that are complementary to these new technologies will benefit, while those with skills that are substitutes will face dimming job prospects. The extent and speed of the transformation remains uncertain. This paper presents several possible scenarios for the future of work and draws on the Industrial Revolution to offer a historical perspective. It ends with a discussion of different policy options that could be deployed. Foremost, it highlights the urgent need for further international collaboration to broaden the tax base, both because tax avoidance is likely to become a bigger problem as wealth and income become increasingly concentrated and mobile and because of the likely need to expand the social safety net in the face of potentially massive and long-lasting disruptions.
Reference

Who is afraid of machines?

We study how various types of machines, namely, information and communication technologies, software, and especially industrial robots, affect the demand for workers of different education, age, and gender. We do so by exploiting differences in the composition of workers across countries, industries and time. Our dataset comprises 10 high-income countries and 30 industries, which span roughly their entire economies, with annual observations over the period 1982-2005. The results suggest that software and robots reduced the demand for low and medium-skill workers, the young, and women - especially in manufacturing industries; but raised the demand for high-skill workers, older workers and men - especially in service industries. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that automation technologies, contrary to other types of capital, replace humans performing routine tasks. We also find evidence for some types of workers, especially women, having shifted away from such tasks.
Reference

Minding the gap? Ontario postsecondary students' perceptions on the state of their skills

Postsecondary students perceive a gap between the skills they think they will need in their future careers and those they are developing while in university or college, according to a survey conducted by the Higher Education Quality Council of Ontario (HEQCO) and eCampusOntario. The largest gaps were in creative/innovative thinking skills, business etiquette, leadership and teamwork. The Ontario government purchased in 2017 a blanket, three-year licence to online learning platform Lynda.com that provides the province’s postsecondary students with free access to the site. HEQCO partnered with eCampusOntario to evaluate how well this initiative is serving students, with a particular focus on whether access to Lynda.com can help address the perceived skills gap among students. The first step in this multi-year evaluation involved surveying students about how they perceive their skills and their level of interest in online skills development. A group of 6,360 students was recruited through the Student Life Network to complete a 10-minute online survey. The survey focused on both transferable skills (for example, problem solving, teamwork, leadership and organization) and professional skills (for example, financial literacy, data analysis, public speaking and IT skills). Some of those surveyed also participated in focus groups. The results are reported in Minding the Gap? Ontario Postsecondary Students’ Perceptions on the State of Their Skills, a new report published by HEQCO.
Reference

The role of career adaptability in skills supply (technical)

There are two separate, but inter-related reports for this study. The first comprises the main document and reports on the findings from the research study and presents an analysis of the findings. This, the second document, is the ‘Technical Report’, which details the research approach and methodology implemented to examine career adaptability. The Technical Report is divided into five sections, including this introduction. The introduction reports on the research approach adopted and details the international dimension of the study. The second section provides an account of the primary data collection undertaken in the UK reporting on the design and pilot of the interview guide, data collection and the sampling methodology. The third section reviews the secondary data analysis and sampling methodology undertaken with interviews carried out in Norway in 2010. The fourth section discusses the data analysis phase of the study, including the development of the framework for analysis and the process of analysing and interpreting the results of the interviews. The final section of the report summarises the key findings and issues arising from the methodology adopted. The appendices include the interview guide and participant consent form from the UK and Norway interviews.
Reference

Measuring adult literacy and life skills: New Frameworks for assessment

The first part of this publication provides the reader with an overview of policy issues that motivated the EIAA study which inspired ALL. It identifies the explicit objectives for the ALL study, the pragmatic considerations that influenced the design and documents the overall method development and validation of instruments implemented in the framework of the study. The rest of the first part (chapters 2 and 3) evokes the development of the ALL study from the general theory that underlies the assessment to the research and development that led to the final design. It tells the reader thinking that motivated the choice of areas of expertise, the process of developing evaluation frameworks and related instruments in each area, the validation method of assessment instruments, inclusion criteria measures in international comparative assessment of skills and case work on the development of ALL produce measures of sufficient quality. [googletranslate_en]
Reference

Travail industriel à l'ère du numérique: Se former aux compétences de demain

The transition to the future of industry is a major challenge for companies. It is based on new production methods that can produce in a shorter time, more properly, sometimes "tailored" to customer demand and offer new services. The discussions are focused on the technological dimension of these transformations so that human and organizational issues are equally important. In most cases, these are only addressed in terms of quantity, reduced to the persistent question of the impact of automation on employment. It is entirely legitimate to question the volume of jobs affected by the industrial changes but we must ensure that the most pessimistic forecasts do not become self-fulfilling prophecies. The underlying technological and organizational changes affect the content of the tasks to employees and their required skills. French industry will go upmarket and get out of a competition based on cost of inputs (energy and raw materials, purchased services and especially the cost of labor) if it is firmly committed to this transformation. Beyond the development and ownership of the necessary technology, it will rely on qualified employees, able to learn new skills as technology changes. They will also work in most organizations moving, less hierarchical and based on a communication much denser. It is a challenge for individuals who need to acquire during their initial training and throughout their life and technical skills necessary relational. It is a challenge for businesses, which will attract talent and invest more today in the ongoing training of their employees. It is a challenge for the territories and states, which must anticipate change and support people whose jobs are transformed or threatened use to help them develop the skills to stay active. Five modes of action p [googletranslate_en]