References

This database has been compiled to provide a searchable repository on published research addressing “future skills” that will be a useful tool for researchers and individuals interested in the future of work and the future of skills.

The database integrates existing bibliographies focused on future skills and the future of work as well as the results of new ProQuest and Google Scholar searches. The process of building the database also involved consultations with experts and the identification of key research organizations publishing in this area, as well as searches of those organizations’ websites. For a more detailed explanation of how the database was assembled, please read the Future Skills Reference Database Technical Note.

The current database, assembled by future skills researchers at the Diversity Institute, is not exhaustive but represents a first step in building a more comprehensive database. It will be regularly updated and expanded as new material is published and identified. In that vein, we encourage those with suggestions for improvements to this database to connect with us directly at di.fsc@ryerson.ca.

From this database, we also selected 39 key publications and created an Annotated Bibliography. It is designed to serve as a useful tool for researchers, especially Canadian researchers, who may need some initial guidance in terms of the key references in this area.

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Reference

Sector insights: Skills and performance challenges in the digital and creative sector

The digital and creative sector is an important part of the UK economy. It encompasses a wide range of activities, including telecommunications; computer programming and consultancy; publishing; films and music; programming and broadcasting; design and photography; and creative arts and entertainment. This report covers the digital and creative sector across all four nations of the UK.
Reference

German robots: The impact of industrial robots on workers

We study the impact of rising robot exposure on the careers of individual manufacturing workers, and the equilibrium impact across industries and local labor markets in Germany. We find no evidence that robots cause total job losses, but they do affect the composition of aggregate employment. Every robot destroys two manufacturing jobs. This accounts for almost 23% of the overall decline of manufacturing employment in Germany over the period 1994–2014, roughly 275,000 jobs. But this loss was fully offset by additional jobs in the service sector. Moreover, robots have not raised the displacement risk for incumbent manufacturing workers. Quite in contrast, more robot exposed workers are even more likely to remain employed in their original workplace, though not necessarily performing the same tasks, and the aggregate manufacturing decline is solely driven by fewer new jobs for young labor market entrants. This enhanced job stability for insiders comes at the cost of lower wages. The negative impact of robots on individual earnings arises mainly for medium-skilled workers in machine operating occupations, while high-skilled managers gain. In the aggregate, robots raise labor productivity but not wages. Thereby they contribute to the decline of the labor income share.
Reference

2050: The future of work - Findings of an international Delphi-study of the millennium project

The first question posed by Delphi concerned the extremely controversial extent of unemployment feared or expected from technological transformation. Nearly unanimously, and independent of the age of respondents or from which region they came, the experts anticipated a globally rising unemployment rate on average from today’s circa 6 percent (Allen 2015) to 11 percent in 2020, with a continual rise up to 24 percent by 2050. 12 2050: THE FUTURE OF WORK. However, it is important to remember that the above figures are all averages of the responses. Some respondents expect an unemployment rate of up to 50 percent by 2050 or even a state of “nearly total unemployment”. Equally, the more experience respondents have with forecasting, the higher their estimates are pitched. The expectations of the less experienced experts as to the extent of the anticipated unemployment rate were on average 21 percent while the more experienced among them levelled out at 27 percent. By the same token, those experts with more competence in the fields of artificial intelligence and technology development also made higher estimates (for example, respondents with greater expertise estimated the global unemployment rate at 14, not 11, percent by 2020). In other words, the more respondents knew about predicting the future and the evolution of technology, the larger their estimates of expected unemployment were.
Reference

Autonomous vehicles and the future of work in Canada (ICTC)

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are set to be the next major technological breakthrough of the 21st century. The AV industry in Canada will create 34,700 new jobs between 2017 and 2021. However, Canada lags behind major automobile manufacturing countries such as the US, Japan, and Germany. The extent to which Canada can harness the positive impacts on employment in high-tech sectors from autonomous vehicles (e.g., automotive engineering, ICT in general) will depend crucially on the role Canada plays in the development of this new technology. Furthermore, the adoption of autonomous vehicle technology will generate new opportunities for inclusivity and economic participation for underrepresented groups — such as individuals with disabilities, Indigenous peoples, and people living in rural or remote areas — as long-distance travel becomes more manageable. AV adoption will also require a comprehensive retrofitting of our road infrastructure and changes to our traffic laws. Such changes will boost demand for civil engineers, urban and land use planners, consultants, and policy analysts. On the other side of the ledger, most driving jobs will be phased out as the technology improves. How fast this will happen depends on how efficiently various driving occupations can be automated. Although drivers make up only 0.5% of the Canadian labour force, they have, on average, the lowest level of education among workers affected by AV technology. Supporting these workers through a difficult period of transition should therefore be a social and economic priority. In addition to drivers, mechanics and other workers will need re-training, either to adapt to the changing skill demand of their occupation or to transition into other fields.
Reference

Improving Canada’s digital advantage: Building the digital talent pool and skills for tomorrow

The focus of this project was to review the existing English and French language literature, both Canadian and International, which address the following themes: Definitions of specific digital skills, including their similarities and differences; Benchmarks used to assess digital skills; Strategies related to information and communications technology (ICT) and digital economy skills, including operative definitions, components, and evaluations (if any); Taxonomies of stakeholders as well as initiatives documented to promote digital skills, including goals, tactics, and impacts; and, Potential models that may serve as a basis for further consultation with relevant stakeholders.
Reference

"Soft" skills are hard - A review of the literature

This study provided a systematic review of the academic and “grey” literature on “soft” skills in Canada. A key word search was used to pull a broad range of articles and papers which were coded and analysed to explore the ways in which “soft” skills are defined, developed and measured.
Reference

Assessing the impact of universities in the innovation ecosystem: Incubators, accelerators, and the culture of innovation

Digital skills are the foundation of a world-class digital economy. For more than two decades, there has been a great deal of discussion of Canada’s critical skills shortage, skill mismatches, and the digital divide. Canada’s last comprehensive digital strategy, developed by the Information Highway Advisory Council (IHAC), was instituted over a decade ago (IHAC, 1998). Given the rapid pace of change in technology – and the skills needed to use this technology – Canada requires a new digital strategy. Digital skills are, arguably, the foundation upon which the other pillars of a national digital strategy are built. While the development of physical infrastructure is an important priority, advanced countries also recognize the need to develop their human skills infrastructure. This ensures the population is able to take full advantage of the physical infrastructure, access the government services and consume digital products and services. Digital skills are critical to companies developing infrastructure, companies requiring skilled workers to achieve their business objectives, companies creating new products and services, as well as small companies striving to rise to the next level. Research and innovation, fundamental to the growth of a world-class digital economy, are dependent on a skilled workforce. The focus of this project was to review the existing English and French language literature, both Canadian and International, which address the following themes: definitions of specific digital skills, including their similarities and differences; benchmarks used to assess digital skills; strategies related to information and communications technology (ICT) and digital economy skills, including operative definitions, components, and evaluations (if any); taxonomies of stakeholders as well as initiatives documented to promote digital skills, including goals, tactics, and impacts; and, potential models that may serve as a basis for further consultation with relevant stakeholders.
Reference

Developing Canada’s Digital-Ready Public Service

Canada’s public service has charted an ambitious information management and technology strategy, and talent is one of its pillars. Finding innovative approaches to attracting, developing, and retaining the best and brightest requires rethinking many traditional assumptions and harnessing new approaches. What can be done to attract a skilled and diverse workforce?