There is nothing new about technology causing the elimination of some jobs; it has been happening since the dawn of civilization. In the past, new technology has eventually contributed to creating jobs -- jobs requiring higher levels of skill, education and training. Up until now, machines have been most effective at performing repetitive and mechanical tasks – jobs that are “dirty, dull and dangerous.” Those jobs requiring human judgment, knowledge or interaction were considered to be largely immune to either mechanization or computerization. Recent advancements in computer data analytics and robotic technologies, however, have led some to speculate that this time could be different; that occupations involving cognitive, creative and socially interactive skills could also now be at risk. These concerns have received a great deal of attention in the media lately, in part, as a result of a September, 2013 Oxford University paper titled The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation? by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne. Frey and Osborne examine 702 occupations and predicted, which were most, least, and somewhat at risk of being taken over by computers or computer-driven robots within the next two decades. “According to our estimate,” Frey and Osborne write in their report, “47 percent of total U.S. employment is in the high-risk category,” including such occupations as taxi drivers, fast-food counter clerks, paralegals, tax preparers and insurance underwriters, among many others. The 47 percent estimate and the large number of professional and semi-professional jobs on the list have prompted headlines in the media like “How to Keep Your Job When Your Boss Is a Robot” (Bloomberg, March 18, 2014) and “The Future of Jobs: The Onrushing Wave” (the Economist, January 18, 2014). The cover of the Economist featuring the article showed tornados ripping into a white-collar office workspace. Fueling this anxiety, some media pundits claim that education is no longer the sure fix it has historically been to the elimination of jobs by technology – that computers and other machines are on the cusp of becoming so powerful and capable they will completely replace humans in the workplace.

As disruption becomes an everyday occurrence, we explore its primary causes and the megatrends that are shaping our future Disruption is fundamentally changing the way the world works. Today’s businesses, government and individuals are responding to shifts that would have seemed unimaginable even a few years ago. Artificial intelligence and robotics are reinventing the workforce. Drones and driverless cars are transforming supply chains and logistics. And changing preferences and expectations — most notably in the millennial generation — are altering consumption patterns and demand for everything from cars to real estate. We have looked at the root causes of these transformative trends and, consequently, have identified three primary forces behind this current wave of disruption: technology, globalization, and demographic change. By understanding the interaction between these forces, we’ve identified eight global megatrends which are shaping the future. These are large, transformative trends that define the present and shape the future by their impact on businesses, economies, industries, societies and individual lives.

The world of work is part-and-parcel of the changing economy, heavily influenced by globalisation, international value and supply chains, more division of labour, and digital disruption. Work is no longer a static concept but an umbrella term for roles performed in a different manner and under different legal arrangements. Public policy needs to adapt to this new situation and benefit from the agility that comes with it while mitigating the downsides. Europe has a strong manufacturing base, a diverse and talented workforce and a large creative economy that offer a rich backdrop for a future of work with creative and fulfilling jobs. By orchestrating more tailor-made, customised interventions, based on granular insights provided by big data sources, it can achieve better results and foster the context within which both individuals and firms can thrive. This Strategic Note states that Governments need to find more innovative ways to offer life-long and personalised support for employment, skills and welfare, adapted to the needs of individuals.

In this essay, we argue that the thoughtful use of AI-based automation, far from making humans obsolete or relegating them to busywork, can open up vast possibilities for creating meaningful work that not only allows for, but requires, the uniquely human strengths of sense-making and contextual decisions. In fact, creating good jobs that play to our strengths as social creatures might be necessary if we’re to realize AI’s latent potential and break us out of the persistent period of low productivity growth that we’re experiencing today. But for AI to deliver on its promise, we must take a fundamentally different view of work and how work is organized—one that takes AI’s uniquely flexible capabilities into account, and that treats humans and intelligent machines as partners in search of solutions to a shared problem.

Why do we work and how does work give us meaning? How can the European values of justice, dignity and solidarity be realised in a changing world? To what extent may longstanding governance frameworks, such as social security systems and employment laws require an update? To address these questions an Open Round Table took place on 5 February 2018 with the participation of a wide range of stakeholders from different sectors of society, including academic experts, international organisations, industry, trade unions and NGOs. The conclusions of the Round Table will feed into the EGE’s Opinion n°30 on the Future of Work.

On 5 February 2018 an Open Round Table brought together a wide range of stakeholders from all sectors of society, including academic experts, international organisations, industry, trade unions and NGOs, discussing thorny questions at the heart of the Future of Work, ranging from the impact of automation and digitalisation on the labour market, including the future role of artificial intelligence, to the rise of the gig economy and industry 4.0. As a critical moment for public deliberation, the discussions held during the Round Table will inform the development of the upcoming EGE Opinion on the Future of Work.

Transformations of work – and in particular, the role that new technologies play in this process – are often seen as one of the key challenges of our societies. Technologies affect where we work, how we work, how we are compensated, and whether and how we are employed. Next to globalisation and demographic and environmental changes, the increasing use of advanced technologies – including robotics, artificial intelligence (AI) and the automation of tasks previously done by humans – is typically portrayed as the main reason for the transformation of work. On the basis of our engagement with this topic across academic disciplines, contexts of practice, and national borders, we are convinced that shaping the future of work in our societies requires us to look at the nature and function of work. We have a collective commitment to ensure that everyone can lead a decent life. If there is ‘not enough’ paid work for everybody to afford a decent life through their earnings, then the solution cannot be - as often suggested - to ‘up-skill’ individuals so that they can better compete on the labour market. The solution, instead, needs to include a process of societal up-skilling, understood as a collective duty and commitment to find solutions to ensure dignified livelihoods for all people, whether or not they are in paid employment. Thus, this Opinion is ultimately about the future of our societies based on European values of dignity, freedom, autonomy, privacy, social equality and solidarity.

The Juncker Commission has committed to focus policies on "the key challenges ahead for our economies and for our societies" and to work across portfolios to produce "integrated, well-grounded and well explained initiatives". One of the challenges identified is "the ageing of our population". Rapid demographic ageing is not only a major societal challenge (in terms of public budgets, workforce, competitiveness and quality of life) but also a major opportunity for new jobs and growth, also referred to as the Silver Economy. In the background paper Growing the Silver Economy in Europe, an overview is provided of relevant Silver Economy related initiatives of the European Commission; a tentative narrative on the Silver Economy and an equally tentative analysis of possible EU Silver Economy actions based on existing initiatives and their potential for the generation of new jobs and growth. The paper does not propose any new initiative as such, and the proposed narrative and example actions do not constitute any commitment by the DGs involved at this stage. They serve as input for further consideration.

The Employment and Social Developments Quarterly Review provides in-depth description of recent labour market and social developments. A wide range of information sources have been used to produce this report, including Eurostat statistics, reports and survey data from the Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs. The Review confirms overall positive labour market developments. Total employment hit a new record of 239.3 million people in the third quarter of 2018. The largest share of new jobs is permanent and full-time jobs. In the second quarter of 2018, permanent jobs had increased by 2.7 million compared with the same quarter of the previous year. The employment rate continued rising towards the Europe 2020 target and reached 73.2 % in the second quarter of 2018.