References

This database has been compiled to provide a searchable repository on published research addressing “future skills” that will be a useful tool for researchers and individuals interested in the future of work and the future of skills.

The database integrates existing bibliographies focused on future skills and the future of work as well as the results of new ProQuest and Google Scholar searches. The process of building the database also involved consultations with experts and the identification of key research organizations publishing in this area, as well as searches of those organizations’ websites. For a more detailed explanation of how the database was assembled, please read the Future Skills Reference Database Technical Note.

The current database, assembled by future skills researchers at the Diversity Institute, is not exhaustive but represents a first step in building a more comprehensive database. It will be regularly updated and expanded as new material is published and identified. In that vein, we encourage those with suggestions for improvements to this database to connect with us directly at di.fsc@ryerson.ca.

From this database, we also selected 39 key publications and created an Annotated Bibliography. It is designed to serve as a useful tool for researchers, especially Canadian researchers, who may need some initial guidance in terms of the key references in this area.

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Reference

Digcomp, le cadre de référence européen des compétences numériques

Digital competence can be defined as "the use of safe and critical the information society technologies (IST) '(EC, 2006: 7). Competence iconic 21st century, it is essential to the formation, work, leisure and the citizen participation. Noting the shortcomings of the population in this area - 40% of Europeans have an insufficient level of digital skills and among those who have none (22%) 42% are unemployed (EC, 2016A 3) - Commission European designed the DIGCOMP, a framework for digital skills. The goal? Support European countries in the design of policies, measures, programs and other devices supporting the development of digital skills.  This framework holds our attention for its rigor, completeness and usability and the multiple uses to which it gives rise, including self-assessment skills tools. [googletranslate_en]
Reference

Skills, competencies and credentials

The current university system of credentials, accreditation and transcripts does not serve most undergraduate students well, according to this report. While the current system does an excellent job documenting students' knowledge of content, it provides neither students nor potential employers with an overview of the skills they have developed while studying - leaving employers to infer that skills from content knowledge can lead to a 'skills gap' and an inability to find graduates with the necessary skills to fill advertised positions. If universities are to use content as the vehicle for skill development, they need to ensure there is good evidence to support the claim that this development has occurred. The report raises the possibility of universities working together with employer groups to collaboratively discuss the desired skills and how they can be best reflected in the curriculum and in student records.
Reference

A proposal for modernizing labor laws for twenty-first-century work: The "independent worker"

New and emerging work relationships arising in the “online gig economy” do not fit easily into the existing legal definitions of “employee” and “independent contractor” status. The distinction is important because employees qualify for a range of legally mandated benefits and protections that are not available to independent contractors, such as the right to organize and bargain collectively, workers’ compensation insurance coverage, and overtime compensation. This paper proposes a new legal category, which we call “independent workers,” for those who occupy the gray area between employees and independent contractors. Independent workers typically work with intermediaries who match workers to customers. The independent worker and the intermediary have some elements of the arms-length independent business relationships that characterize “independent contractor” status, and some elements of a traditional employee-employer relationship. On the one hand, independent workers have the ability to choose when to work, and whether to work at all. They may work with multiple intermediaries simultaneously or conduct personal tasks while they are working with an intermediary. It is thus impossible in many circumstances to attribute independent workers’ work hours to any employer. In this critical respect, independent workers are similar to independent businesses. On the other hand, the intermediary retains some control over the way independent workers perform their work, such as by setting their fees or fee caps, and they may “fire” workers by prohibiting them from using their service. In these respects, independent workers are similar to traditional employees. Evidence is presented suggesting that about 600,000 workers, or 0.4 percent of total U.S. employment, work with an online intermediary in the gig economy. Although there are probably many more workers who currently work with an offline intermediary who would qualify for independent worker status than there are who work with an online intermediary, the number of workers participating in the online gig economy is growing very rapidly. In our proposal, independent workers — regardless of whether they work through an online or offline intermediary — would qualify for many, although not all, of the benefits and protections that employees receive, including the freedom to organize and collectively bargain, civil rights protections, tax withholding, and employer contributions for payroll taxes. Because it is conceptually impossible to attribute their work hours to any single intermediary, however, independent workers would not qualify for hours-based benefits, including overtime or minimum wage requirements. Further, because independent workers would rarely, if ever, qualify for unemployment insurance benefits given the discretion they have to choose whether to work through an intermediary, they would not be covered by the program or be required to contribute taxes to fund that program. However, intermediaries would be permitted to pool independent workers for purposes of purchasing and providing insurance and other benefits at lower cost and higher quality without the risk that their relationship will be transformed into an employment relationship. Our proposal seeks to structure benefits to make independent worker status neutral when compared with employee status, as well as to enhance the efficiency of the operation of the labor market. By extending many of the legal benefits and protections found in employment relationships to independent workers, our proposal would protect and extend the social compact between workers and employers and reduce the legal uncertainty and legal costs that currently beset many independent worker relationships.
Reference

Labor 2030: The collision of demographics, automation and inequality

Demographics, automation and inequality have the potential to dramatically reshape our world in the 2020s and beyond. Our analysis shows that the collision of these forces could trigger economic disruption far greater than we have experienced over the past 60 years (see Figure 1). The aim of this report by Bain's Macro Trends Group is to detail how the impact of aging populations, the adoption of new automation technologies and rising inequality will likely combine to give rise to new business risks and opportunities. These gathering forces already pose challenges for businesses and investors. In the next decade, they will combine to create an economic climate of increasing extremes but may also trigger a decade-plus investment boom. In the US, a new wave of investment in automation could stimulate as much as $8 trillion in incremental investments and abruptly lift interest rates. By the end of the 2020s, automation may eliminate 20% to 25% of current jobs, hitting middle- to low-income workers the hardest. As investments peak and then decline—probably around the end of the 2020s to the start of the 2030s—anemic demand growth is likely to constrain economic expansion, and global interest rates may again test zero percent. Faced with market imbalances and growth-stifling levels of inequality, many societies may reset the government's role in the marketplace.
Reference

The rise and fall of U.S. low-skilled immigration

From the 1970s to the early 2000s, the United States experienced an epochal wave of low-skilled immigration. Since the Great Recession, however, U.S. borders have become a far less active place when it comes to the net arrival of foreign workers. The number of undocumented immigrants has declined in absolute terms, while the overall population of low-skilled, foreign-born workers has remained stable. We examine how the scale and composition of low-skilled immigration in the United States have evolved over time, and how relative income growth and demographic shifts in the Western Hemisphere have contributed to the recent immigration slowdown. Because major source countries for U.S. immigration are now seeing and will continue to see weak growth of the labor supply relative to the United States, future immigration rates of young, low-skilled workers appear unlikely to rebound, whether or not U.S. immigration policies tighten further.
Reference

An economy for the 99%: It's time to build a human economy that benefits everyone, not just the privileged few

New estimates show that just eight men own the same wealth as the poorest half of the world. As growth benefits the richest, the rest of society – especially the poorest – suffers. The very design of our economies and the principles of our economics have taken us to this extreme, unsustainable and unjust point. Our economy must stop excessively rewarding those at the top and start working for all people. Accountable and visionary governments, businesses that work in the interests of workers and producers, a valued environment, women’s rights and a strong system of fair taxation, are central to this more human economy.
Reference

Trends in job skill demands in OECD countries

This report examines skill trends in 24 OECD countries over the past several decades. The skill measures used include broad occupation groups, country-specific direct measures of skill requirements from international surveys, and direct skill measures from the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) database applied to both United States and European labour force surveys. Each kind of data has its own strengths and limitations, but they tell a consistent story.
Reference

Declining business dynamism in the US high-technology sector

The U.S. economy is very dynamic - with firms entering, exiting, expanding, or contracting at all times. More competitive firms grow and replace less-competitive ones. This dynamic process is an important source of productivity growth and sustained economic prosperity in modern economies. New and young firms play an outsized role in this productivity-enhancing dynamic process, and in net job creation. But, recent trends point to sustained declines in business dynamism and in entrepreneurship across a broad range of sectors in the U.S. economy. While the causes and implications of this development are still being uncovered, it may suggest a lower growth economy and standards of living than otherwise would have been. We examine how these trends apply to the U.S. high-tech sector - defined here as the group of industries with very high shares of workers in the STEM occupations of science, technology, engineering, and math. Our findings show that the recently documented secular declines in business dynamism that occurred broadly across the U.S. economy during the last couple of decades also occurred in the high-tech sector in the post-2000 period. As part of this decline in dynamism, we find indicators of a slowdown in entrepreneurship in the high-tech sector in the post-2000 period. This slowdown in the high-tech sector may be especially problematic for all the reasons stated above. High-tech firms also play an outsized role in income, employment, and productivity growth overall and are generally focused on the types of cutting-edge technologies that can drive sustained economic growth. This sector typically is viewed as very entrepreneurial, but we document a pronounced slowdown in such activity in the post-2000 period.
Reference

Job creation and firm dynamics in the United States

Business dynamism plays an important role in job creation and productivity growth in the United States. Business start-ups are an important contributor to that dynamism. Start-ups contribute disproportionately to job creation but are very heterogeneous in terms of productivity. The subsequent “up-or-out” dynamic of young businesses is an important source of job and productivity growth: exiting young businesses are of very low productivity, and the surviving young businesses exhibit rapid growth with above average productivity. The United States shows signs of becoming less dynamic over time—exhibiting a slower pace of reallocation with an accompanying slower pace of job creation from business start-ups. The recent recession saw the lowest overall rate of gross job creation and job creation from start-ups since at least 1980. Job creation for small (young) businesses took an especially large hit in the recession and has been very slow to recover. An open question is whether the observed decline in dynamism exhibited by U.S. businesses will have adverse consequences for U.S. innovation, job, and productivity growth in the future. The fundamental impulse that keeps the capital engine in motion comes from the new consumers’ goods, the new methods of production and transportation, the new markets…. [The process] incessantly revolutionizes from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one. This process of Creative Destruction is the essential fact of capitalism