References
This database has been compiled to provide a searchable repository on published research addressing “future skills” that will be a useful tool for researchers and individuals interested in the future of work and the future of skills.
The database integrates existing bibliographies focused on future skills and the future of work as well as the results of new ProQuest and Google Scholar searches. The process of building the database also involved consultations with experts and the identification of key research organizations publishing in this area, as well as searches of those organizations’ websites. For a more detailed explanation of how the database was assembled, please read the Future Skills Reference Database Technical Note.
The current database, assembled by future skills researchers at the Diversity Institute, is not exhaustive but represents a first step in building a more comprehensive database. It will be regularly updated and expanded as new material is published and identified. In that vein, we encourage those with suggestions for improvements to this database to connect with us directly at di.fsc@ryerson.ca.
From this database, we also selected 39 key publications and created an Annotated Bibliography. It is designed to serve as a useful tool for researchers, especially Canadian researchers, who may need some initial guidance in terms of the key references in this area.
Search the database
Reference
The vital 6 per cent: How high-growth innovative businesses generate prosperity and jobs
A small minority of high-growth businesses hold the key to job creation and wider prosperity. New research published by NESTA shows that the 6 per cent of UK businesses with the highest growth rates generated half of the new jobs created by existing businesses between 2002 and 2008. Although these companies came from across the country and from all sectors of the economy, they had one important factor in common: they were far more likely to be innovative, and the research shows that their innovation was a source of growth. This has important implications for the Government: it suggests that economic policy should focus on promoting innovation and on the small number of companies with high growth potential, rather than broadly based business support programmes for new start-ups and SMEs. More importantly, it shows that an approach of backing excellence and innovation is not an elitist policy: rather, it is the best way of generating employment and opportunity. This goal forms the basis of NESTA’s research agenda, investment activities and practical programmes.
Reference
Aging and the macroeconomy: Long-term implications of an older population
The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the next four decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: People are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. This report presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.
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Information technology and the U.S. workforce: Where are we and where do we go from here?
Recent years have yielded significant advances in computing and communication technologies, with profound impacts on society. Technology is transforming the way we work, play, and interact with others. From these technological capabilities, new industries, organizational forms, and business models are emerging.
Technological advances can create enormous economic and other benefits but can also lead to significant changes for workers. IT and automation can change the way work is conducted, by augmenting or replacing workers in specific tasks. This can shift the demand for some types of human labor, eliminating some jobs and creating new ones. Information Technology and the U.S. Workforce explores the interactions between technological, economic, and societal trends and identifies possible near-term developments for work. This report emphasizes the need to understand and track these trends and develop strategies to inform, prepare for, and respond to changes in the labor market. It offers evaluations of what is known, notes open questions to be addressed, and identifies promising research pathways moving forward.
Reference
Automation and artificial intelligence: How machines are affecting people and places
At first, technologists issued dystopian alarms about the power of automation and artificial intelligence (AI) to destroy jobs. Then came a correction, with a wave of reassurances. Now, the discourse appears to be arriving at a more complicated understanding, suggesting that automation will bring neither apocalypse nor utopia, but instead both benefits and stress alike. Such is the ambiguous and sometimes disembodied nature of the "future of work" discussion. Hence the analysis presented here. Intended to bring often-inscrutable trends down to earth, the following report develops both backward and forward-looking analyses of the impacts of automation over the years 1980 to 2016 and 2016 to 2030 to assess past and upcoming trends as they affect both people and communities in the United States. The report focuses on areas of potential occupational change rather than net employment losses or gains. Special attention is applied to digging beneath national top-line statistics to explore industry, geographical, and demographic variations. Finally, the report concludes by suggesting a comprehensive response framework for national and state-local policymakers.
Reference
Digitalization and the American workforce
Over the past half century, wave after wave of digital innovation has ensured that “digitalization” the diffusion of digital technologies into nearly every business and workplace and pocket has been remaking the U.S. economy and the world of work. So rapid are the developments, in fact, that while the “digitalization of everything” has become a hallmark of tech’s promise of empowerment, it has begun to prompt widespread anxiety, including among workers who worry about their future in an age of brilliant machines. And yet, for all of the evidence that big changes are underway, surprisingly little data exists to track the spread of digital adoption. In the absence of such information, the digitalization trend, as prominent as it is, remains diffuse and hard to pin down. Hence this report: Designed to clarify a major trend, the present assessment provides a detailed analysis of changes in the digital content of 545 occupations covering 90 percent of the workforce in all industries since 2001.
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Where the robots are
Where are the robots, exactly? One answer—if you read the steady flow of doomy articles online — is that automation is everywhere, not just all over the media but (you would have to conclude) thoroughly infiltrating the economy. In that sense, the trend seems omnipresent even as it spawns a kind of free-floating dread amongst the chattering class. Yet, that can’t be right. Almost nothing in today’s economy is evenly distributed, whether it be technology, productivity, output, or inclusive prosperity. And so, it is worth getting more specific about where exactly automation may displace workers — and where not.
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Skills - where are we today? The state of skills and PSE in Canada
Canada requires a high-performing post-secondary education (PSE) sector to produce people with the advanced skills and knowledge necessary to contribute to economic, social, political and individual well-being. Although Canada’s PSE sector has performed relatively well to date on many measures, we can do much better. More attention needs to be focused on the quality of skills being produced to meet and address current and future economic and social opportunities and challenges. Skills—Where Are We Today? The State of Skills and PSE in Canada provides a systems perspective on the state of skills and higher education in Canada and identifies areas where the sector could improve in producing highly skilled graduates. It is one of three foundational studies for the Centre for Skills and Post-Secondary Education that, together, offer the first steps in a diagnosis of the sector and its performance.
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Compétences, formation et apprentissage continu
Pour améliorer ses systèmes de perfectionnement professionnel, de formation et d’apprentissage continu, le Canada devrait : 1. Mettre l’accent sur les compétences de base, sans lesquelles les travailleurs ont du mal à acquérir de nouvelles compétences et de nouvelles connaissances; 2. Améliorer l’équité et l’inclusion en matière de possibilités de formation et de perfectionnement professionnel; 3. Encourager le partage des coûts entre les entreprises, les travailleurs et le gouvernement; 4. Favoriser le partage d’information entre les établissements d’enseignement, les entreprises, les syndicats et les autres parties prenantes, ainsi que l’analyse rigoureuse de cette information; 5. Faire le suivi de l’efficacité des programmes.
Reference
The need to make skills work: The cost of Ontario's skills gap
Skills gaps cost the Ontario economy up to $24.3 billion in foregone GDP—a result of too many Ontarians not obtaining enough education to find employment in today’s economy. Skills gaps are projected to worsen if action is not taken to address them, and fears about a future of “jobs without people” and “people without jobs” are widespread. However, little has been done to examine the true economic costs of Ontario’s skills gaps and what can be done to prevent a skills crisis. To address a lack of information, the Conference Board undertook a major study of skills gaps in Ontario, including a survey of over 1,500 Ontario employers.