This paper expresses Knoll’s perspective on trends shaping the future of work and the workplace. It includes our research and that of others in an effort to illustrate a broad view of the future and the trends affecting the workplace. We discuss six macro business, social and technology trends, followed by the implications of these trends on real estate and workplace strategy and implementation of workplace design.

"Sets out to illuminate the diverse and intersecting trends driving change in Canada’s labour market. These trends have the potential to influence future skills demand in either positive or negative ways—and sometimes both. This report is not a prediction of the future or a deep analysis of any one trend, but instead reveals a complex picture. It aims to spark exploratory and imaginative thinking, and push readers to ask themselves “what if?” What if Canada sees a rise in wildfires, floods and mudslides? What if cases of mental health issues associated with technology use continue to multiply? What if AI becomes capable of performing creative tasks? This report explores 31 broad trends such as these, while imagining the possible implications for Canada and its labour market in the year 2030 and beyond. The goal of this report is to challenge leaders from all sectors—including policymakers, educators and employers—to cast their net wide when considering multiple trends, from the weaker signals of change to those that are in the limelight. This also includes contemplating the potential for different trends to interact in ways that are not always so obvious. This work builds on earlier research by our project partner, Nesta, which outlined seven mega trends impacting the future of work, including: technological change, globalization, demographic change, environmental sustainability, urbanization, increasing inequality, political uncertainty Turn and Face the Strange extends this framework of mega trends to explore the dynamics of 31 related trends, some of which are mature, while others are emerging or speculative. This report is the first of several that will be shared as part of Employment in 2030, along with open data, interactive infographics and blogs. It is meant to inform a conversation about the range of changes at play, and to provide a starting point for our expert workshops taking place across Canada throughout the spring. During the workshops, experts with a broad understanding of the Canadian labour market will be asked to forecast how demand for specific occupations is likely to change, based on their understanding of how various trends – including those highlighted in this report – might impact future skill demand. Learn more about the Employment in 2030 project in its entirety."

The new wave of technological innovation is expected to fundamentally change the future of jobs. The debate on the impact on jobs, however, is controversial. Some expect a jobless future, while others argue that history will repeat itself, and new technologies will eventually create new and better jobs. This research aims at a better understanding of the dynamics of job destruction and job creation. The paper develops a framework to explain the nexus new technology, innovation and job, and the forces driving labour-saving as well as job-creating innovations. Technological change is explained as a nonlinear and complex process which comes in waves and different phases, and market, social and political forces are driving the dynamics of job destruction and job creation. The paper firstly explains the role of market forces in driving automation and fragmentation as two forms of process innovation that destroy jobs in industrial production regimes. Secondly, markets also create jobs by adjusting to increased productivity and jobs losses. However, due to country-specific social capabilities the net impact on jobs differs significantly across countries. Finally, this paper explains the long-term process of moving towards a golden age of job creation. Such a phase of massive job creation can only be achieved by transformative changes in the economy where radically new products and new growth industries emerge in a process of creative destruction. Such changes cannot be generated by markets, they are a social and political choice. The paper argues that unintended consequences of past technological changes have disruptive effects in societies and natural environment which trigger social debates and movements, societal learning processes, and eventually, new social and political demand and new capabilities. It is this social transformation that propels transformative structural changes in the economy and massive job creation. This paper concludes that technological change and the future of jobs is not deterministic but needs to be shaped. Both, market adjustment and societal learning processes drive endogenously the job-creation dynamics. The challenge for public policies is to foster the dynamics of societal learning and economic transformation.

What are the prospects for long-run economic growth? The present study looks at a recently launched hypothesis, which I label Singularity. The idea here is that rapid growth in computation and artificial intelligence will cross some boundary or Singularity after which economic growth will accelerate sharply as an ever-accelerating pace of improvements cascade through the economy. The paper develops a growth model that features Singularity and presents several tests of whether we are rapidly approaching Singularity. The key question for Singularity is the substitutability between information and conventional inputs. The tests suggest that the Singularity is not near.

About 40% of employment in manufacturing is in services functions. This paper develops a measure of narrow outsourcing, matching services functions performed by workers inside manufacturing firms to the same services functions provided by outside suppliers. The measure allows us to analyse the competition that, say, workers at the IT services desk in manufacturing firms face from outside IT suppliers. Narrow outsourcing is entered into labour demand functions where labour is broken down on business functions using OECD data combined with the 2016 releases of the World Input Output Database (WIOD). On average, a one percentage point increase in narrow local outsourcing of services reduces manufacturing employment in the same services function by between 1.5% (R&D) and 3% (transport). The impact of offshoring on manufacturing labour demand is small on average but depends strongly on the complexity of the value chain, the policy environment and technology. Manufacturing employment is more services intensive the longer the value chain. In-house IT functions complement and support offshored IT functions, while offshored R&D functions tend to replace in-house R&D. Tentatively, technology as measured by IT maturity and the length of the value chain is more important for employment in services functions in manufacturing than is offshoring.

The Productivity Commission aims to provide insightful, well-informed and accessible advice that leads to the best possible improvement in the wellbeing of New Zealanders. We want to gather ideas, opinions, evidence and information to ensure that this inquiry is well-informed and relevant. The Commission is seeking submissions on the questions contained in this paper by 5 June 2019.

One million workers will retire between 2015 and 2024 in Quebec, while there will be 140,000 workers less for 630,000 pensioners over in 2030. Without extra effort to mitigate these demographic risks and to increase productivity, potential GDP Quebec will decline by 0.7% or 1%. At the same time, two external phenomena in Quebec will influence the portrait of the workforce: automation and robotics, as well as new business models. No economic sector or organization is immune to these phenomena which affect many professions. In the past, technology has created more jobs in the long term than they have removed. Today, although the first estimates of the number of categories and technologically threatened jobs and speed of arrival of new digital tools remain speculative, they point to cause concern. Imagination missing to really predict positive impact (new trades, more satisfying jobs); Nevertheless, some 1.4 million Quebec workers will be affected (new tasks, new technological unemployed, people experiencing underemployment or in search of new formations). Occupations requiring non-routine cognitive work will be more immune robots and intelligent software (tasks requiring capacities of non-standard analysis, improvisation, solving new problems, creativity, transmission know, supervising others, autonomy and social skills). This kind of work and skills are already well established in Quebec. Meanwhile, new business models take advantage of this automation and can cause the elimination of established companies long and the arrival of new local or foreign economic players. The demand services, the measure, services and distance shopping, all-connected and immediate, making 3D printing and collaborative economy will continue to rise, stimulating SMEs and entrepreneurship. Side effects both on regulations on revenues and public policy are inevitable, requiring competent and proactive public service. [googletranslate_en]

This study focuses on the risk of automation and its interaction with training and the use of skills at work. Building on the expert assessment carried out by Carl Frey and Michael Osborne in 2013, the paper estimates the risk of automation for individual jobs based on the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC). The analysis improves on other international estimates of the individual risk of automation by using a more disaggregated occupational classification and identifying the same automation bottlenecks emerging from the experts’ discussion. Hence, it more closely aligns to the initial assessment of the potential automation deriving from the development of Machine Learning. Furthermore, this study investigates the same methodology using national data from Germany and United Kingdom, providing insights into the robustness of the results. The risk of automation is estimated for the 32 OECD countries that have participated in the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) so far. Beyond the share of jobs likely to be significantly disrupted by automation of production and services, the accent is put on characteristics of these jobs and the characteristics of the workers who hold them. The risk is also assessed against the use of ICT at work and the role of training in helping workers transit to new career opportunities.

Middle-skill jobs make up the largest portion of the labor market, yet employers can’t find enough workers trained to the middle-skill level. At the same time, many low-skilled and low-income people need better access to middle-skill training and jobs. Sector partnerships help solve these problems. Through sector partnerships, employers work together with education, training, labor, and community-based organizations to address their industry’s local skill needs. Sector partnerships are a proven strategy for helping workers prepare for middle skill jobs and helping employers find skilled workers.