Automatisation, nouveaux modèles d’affaires et emploi : une prospective québécoise

One million workers will retire between 2015 and 2024 in Quebec, while there will be 140,000 workers less for 630,000 pensioners over in 2030. Without extra effort to mitigate these demographic risks and to increase productivity, potential GDP Quebec will decline by 0.7% or 1%. At the same time, two external phenomena in Quebec will influence the portrait of the workforce: automation and robotics, as well as new business models. No economic sector or organization is immune to these phenomena which affect many professions. In the past, technology has created more jobs in the long term than they have removed. Today, although the first estimates of the number of categories and technologically threatened jobs and speed of arrival of new digital tools remain speculative, they point to cause concern. Imagination missing to really predict positive impact (new trades, more satisfying jobs); Nevertheless, some 1.4 million Quebec workers will be affected (new tasks, new technological unemployed, people experiencing underemployment or in search of new formations). Occupations requiring non-routine cognitive work will be more immune robots and intelligent software (tasks requiring capacities of non-standard analysis, improvisation, solving new problems, creativity, transmission know, supervising others, autonomy and social skills). This kind of work and skills are already well established in Quebec. Meanwhile, new business models take advantage of this automation and can cause the elimination of established companies long and the arrival of new local or foreign economic players. The demand services, the measure, services and distance shopping, all-connected and immediate, making 3D printing and collaborative economy will continue to rise, stimulating SMEs and entrepreneurship. Side effects both on regulations on revenues and public policy are inevitable, requiring competent and proactive public service. [googletranslate_en]