• Français
Future Skills Center logo
Français
Polygon Created with Sketch. Home | Research
Research

Employment Impacts of Canada’s Emission Reduction Plan

This research examines the effect of the federal government’s Emission Reduction Plan (ERP) on Canada’s labour market, using The Conference Board of Canada’s Long-Term Forecasting Model and the Model of Occupations, Skills, and Technology to evaluate industry impacts and transitions as well as inefficiencies and supply and demand forces related to employment. In this report we use a scenario we previously modelled that examines the economic impact of a “realistic” deployment of the ERP. This scenario makes several assumptions that aim to paint a picture of what Canada’s net-zero transition could actually look like.

What are the projected consequences of the ERP for Canada’s long-term overall growth and for the labour market specifically? In the move toward a net-zero economy, will the necessary redirection of capital to emissions reduction be a significant drag on productive capacity, particularly in fossil fuel production and other extractive industries? How will job levels fare within the support businesses for these areas, and what are the implications for industry mix, consumer prices, immigration policy, and retraining efforts?

Download Report Button
Mechanic worker inspects and maintains service of electric engine and battery in automobile garage

Key insights

This research estimates that the Emission Reduction Plan (ERP), released by the federal government in March 2022, will slow Canada’s long-term growth and lower employment across Canada by 2.6 per cent in 2050, representing a loss of over 712,000 jobs versus our baseline forecast in that year.

The ERP’s negative impact on Canadian economic growth is driven by the redirection of capital from productive capacity toward emissions abatement (e.g., carbon capture, electrification) and a legal cap on upstream oil and gas sector emissions, curbing fossil fuel production that would otherwise occur.

Industries directly hit by the ERP include oil and gas extraction, for which employment could be 29,000 jobs lower than baseline by 2050.

More from FSC

Person on computer using an AI image generator app
Research

Rising Concerns About the Impact of New Technologies on Employment

  • December 2025
  • Diversity Institute, Environics Institute
The proportion of Canadian workers who are worried about losing their job in the coming years because the work they do will soon be done by computers or robots has increased, and this cannot be accounted for simply by pointing to growing pessimism about the economy in general. Rather, there is a more direct relationship between concerns about the impact of automation on employment, and the use of AI programs at work.
1 Related Reports
Group of young coworkers analyzing data while sitting in front of computers while one of them looking through notes in notebook
Research

Scoping a PIAAC Research Agenda: Programme for the International Assessments of Adult Competencies

  • December 2025
  • Shift Insights
This project was initiated to develop a Canadian PIAAC research agenda that can guide policymakers, researchers and practitioners in using these new data to close knowledge gaps, enhance policy decisions and improve national performance in skills development.
1 Related Reports
Indigenous Canadian using a mobile device
Project

Project Connect: Professional Project Administrator Program

  • December 2025
  • Royal Roads University
Indigenous Peoples represent the fastest growing and youngest population in Canada, offering critical potential to address skills shortages. Yet systemic inequities in access to education and training persist, resulting in lower employment outcomes and increased vulnerability to economic downturns.
2 Related Reports
View all Research