References

This database has been compiled to provide a searchable repository on published research addressing “future skills” that will be a useful tool for researchers and individuals interested in the future of work and the future of skills.

The database integrates existing bibliographies focused on future skills and the future of work as well as the results of new ProQuest and Google Scholar searches. The process of building the database also involved consultations with experts and the identification of key research organizations publishing in this area, as well as searches of those organizations’ websites. For a more detailed explanation of how the database was assembled, please read the Future Skills Reference Database Technical Note.

The current database, assembled by future skills researchers at the Diversity Institute, is not exhaustive but represents a first step in building a more comprehensive database. It will be regularly updated and expanded as new material is published and identified. In that vein, we encourage those with suggestions for improvements to this database to connect with us directly at di.fsc@ryerson.ca.

From this database, we also selected 39 key publications and created an Annotated Bibliography. It is designed to serve as a useful tool for researchers, especially Canadian researchers, who may need some initial guidance in terms of the key references in this area.

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Reference

Policies to reduce high-tenured displaced workers’ earnings losses through retraining

High-tenured displaced workers often experience significant earnings losses that persist for the rest of their working lives. A well-targeted training initiative has the potential to substantially reduce permanent earnings losses for those displaced workers who have the academic preparation, work experience, and interest to complete high-return retraining, with a rate of return on par with, if not larger than, that reported for formal schooling of young people. Current governmental training programs do not provide adequate resources to finance the long-term training needed by displaced workers to meaningfully offset their losses, nor do they provide the right incentives to get longer-term retraining. This paper presents five comprehensive reforms targeted specifically at retraining displaced workers experiencing significant earnings loss: (1) establish a Displaced Worker Training (DWT) Program to provide sizeable grants for longer-term training; (2) use honest brokers to assess and counsel grantees; (3) provide incentives and performance standards for participants and institutions; (4) evaluate training programs and disseminate best practices; and (5) shore up community colleges’ capacity to provide high-quality training, especially during tough economic times.
Reference

Redesigning work in an era of cognitive technologies

Cognitive technologies, a product of the field of artificial intelligence, can and will be used to eliminate jobs. But leaders face choices about how to apply cognitive technologies. These decisions will determine whether workers are marginalized or empowered, and whether their organizations are creating value or merely cutting costs.
Reference

Meet the US workforce of the future: Older, more diverse, and more educated

Are you a US-based organization searching for tomorrow’s workers? Look around your workplace. The oldest Millennials are just 37 and will likely keep working for several decades.1 The demographic changes that determine many of the key characteristics of the workforce happen slowly. But they happen. Over time, those demographic shifts can compound to make a big difference. It’s a difference we can already see. The main long-term changes in the workforce are, in fact, not new; employers have been adjusting to them for decades. Yet they can have real implications for how organizations approach everything, from workforce planning to diversity initiatives.
Reference

The innovation imperative: Contributing to productivity, growth and well-being

Well-timed and targeted innovation boosts productivity, increases economic growth and helps solve societal problems. But how can governments encourage more people to innovate more of the time? And how can government itself be more innovative? The OECD Innovation Strategy provides a set of principles to spur innovation in people, firms and government. It takes an in-depth look at the scope of innovation and how it is changing, as well as where and how it is occurring, based on updated research and data.
Reference

What we know and don’t know about declining labor force participation: A review

For decades, the portion of prime-age men (ages 25 to 54) in the labor force has been in decline. More recently, the labor force participation rate of prime-age women has stagnated and also declined. This paper addresses the consequences of, and reasons for, these declines, especially among men. A subsequent effort will address appropriate policy responses.
Reference

Measuring the digital economy: A new perspective

The growing role of the digital economy in daily life has heightened demand for new data and measurement tools. Internationally comparable and timely statistics combined with robust cross-country analyses are crucial to strengthen the evidence base for digital economy policy making, particularly in a context of rapid change. This report presents indicators traditionally used to monitor the information society and complements them with experimental indicators that provide insight into areas of policy interest. The key objectives of this publication are to highlight measurement gaps and propose actions to advance the measurement agenda.
Reference

Unemployment to reemployment: An idea to modernize the safety net for the digital age

The basic tenets of Unemployment Insurance (UI) have changed little since the program was enacted during the Great Depression. It was built as a bridge for workers between jobs in similar industries that required similar skills. You lose your job and a weekly check tides you over until you land a new one, usually doing the same type of work as before. But now, new jobs being created are dramatically different than the ones going away, and workers are struggling to keep up with this change and chart a career. Unemployed workers often need help acquiring new skills and navigating the increasingly complex job market. Some also want to work in a new place but need help with moving costs. Yet the existing safety net offers shockingly little to help them with these modern problems, especially compared to systems in other advanced economies. Reemployment is a 21st century replacement for Unemployment. The program would continue as a universally available earned benefit, offering a temporary income to laid-off workers who paid into the system. But it reinvents Unemployment for a modern economy with the following large, structural changes: Expanded eligibility so all workers have access—including those doing contingent (aka gig) work. Workers would continue to receive income support along with one of three new supports: A universal training voucher—redeemable for certified programs run by community colleges, unions, non-profits, or employers—to replace smaller, existing training programs tied to worker displacement. A job search stipend to help defray the cost of finding new employment for workers who want to pursue work opportunities elsewhere in the country. A bonus if a worker lands a new job before their income support expires. On top of that, all older workers who accept new employment at wages significantly lower than their previous job would be eligible for wage insurance. Together, Reemployment’s suite of benefits would obviate the patchwork of outdated retraining programs scattered across government. Labor productivity and workforce participation would rise. Most critically, it would transform Unemployment from solely a safety net into a springboard to work and higher pay.
Reference

When the levee breaks: Labor mobility and economic development in the American south

The availability of low-wage immobile labor may discourage economic development. In the American South, post-bellum economic stagnation has been partially attributed to white landowners’ access to immobile low-wage black workers; indeed, subsequent Southern economic convergence was associated with substantial black out-migration. This paper estimates that the 1927 Mississippi flood caused immediate and persistent out-migration of black workers from flooded counties. Following this decline in the availability of low-wage black labor, landowners in flooded counties dramatically mechanized and modernized agricultural production relative to landowners in nearby similar non-flooded counties. The temporary displacement of black workers led to a permanent economic transition, though landowners had incentives to discourage black out-migration and maintain a system of labor-intensive agricultural production.
Reference

The future of middle-skill jobs

We analyze the likely trends in supply and demand for workers with different levels of education and training over the next decade and beyond. We present data on the current distributions of jobs and wages, and how these distributions have evolved in the recent past; we also review projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on future demand by occupation. We compare these demand-side projections with forecasts of the supply of workers with varying levels of education and training. Overall, we conclude that the demand for middle-skill workers will remain quite robust relative to its supply, especially in key sectors of the economy. A range of policies could help low-income workers obtain more education and training for these middle-skill jobs, thereby raising their earnings and their family’s living standards.