References

This database has been compiled to provide a searchable repository on published research addressing “future skills” that will be a useful tool for researchers and individuals interested in the future of work and the future of skills.

The database integrates existing bibliographies focused on future skills and the future of work as well as the results of new ProQuest and Google Scholar searches. The process of building the database also involved consultations with experts and the identification of key research organizations publishing in this area, as well as searches of those organizations’ websites. For a more detailed explanation of how the database was assembled, please read the Future Skills Reference Database Technical Note.

The current database, assembled by future skills researchers at the Diversity Institute, is not exhaustive but represents a first step in building a more comprehensive database. It will be regularly updated and expanded as new material is published and identified. In that vein, we encourage those with suggestions for improvements to this database to connect with us directly at di.fsc@ryerson.ca.

From this database, we also selected 39 key publications and created an Annotated Bibliography. It is designed to serve as a useful tool for researchers, especially Canadian researchers, who may need some initial guidance in terms of the key references in this area.

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White Paper

The global skills dilemma: How can supply keep up with demand?: The Hays Global Skills Index 2019/20external link icon

2019: Hays Hays
The Hays Global Skills Index (the 'Index') is an annual assessment of the issues and trends impacting skilled labour markets and examines the dynamics at play across 34 markets, determining how easy or difficult it is for organisations to find the skilled professionals they need. In addition to the deep analysis of some of the world's largest labour markets, the report highlights several factors impacting economies globally, including wage stagnation and its potential causes, the disappearance of mid-skilled jobs and occupational gender segregation. This year's Index, the eighth edition to date, reveals two pressures are having particularly important and opposing impacts on skilled labour markets around the world. Our research has found that 'talent mismatches' are worsening in many of the labour markets featured within the Index, at the same time wage premiums paid for high-skilled occupations are typically easing. Overall, labour market conditions remain similar to last year, with the average Index score unchanged at 5.4 – halting a steady rise since the Index began in 2012. Underneath this figure, however, are widespread variations among the 34 labour markets featured. To help tell the wider story, the data for each market is complemented by the insights of Hays experts on the ground to describe the unique challenges each labour market is facing today. One positive development of recent years has been the widespread drop in unemployment rates across the economies in the Index. However, this decline in the number of jobseekers has not typically seen an increase in wages, as might have been expected. This report investigates some of the possible reasons behind the continued wage stagnation across the globe. As with previous years, we have developed a list of recommendations for policymakers and business leaders to consider as part of their wider drives to solve the world's employment challenges: (1) Invest in education, life-long learning and reskilling programmes as a priority for governments and businesses; (2) Employers should actively motivate employees to take advantage of flexible working and geographically distant opportunities; and (3) Companies should embrace diversity in the workforce in all its forms.
Hays (2019). The global skills dilemma: How can supply keep up with demand?: The Hays Global Skills Index 2019/20. London, UK: Hays. Retrieved from https://www.hays-index.com/full-report/.
White Paper

The future of work: Regional perspectivesexternal link icon

2018: Gomez-Pena, A. and Morrison, N.
Recent technological innovation in fields such as robotics, automation, and artificial intelligence have reduced the number of workers required in a range of sectors, while lowering costs and increasing reliability. This trend has led policymakers, academics, CEOs, and entrepreneurs to ask what types of jobs will be most affected, what new skillsets will be needed for the jobs of tomorrow, and how governments can ease the transition. This publication is a joint effort of the African Development Bank Group (AfDB), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). It considers how technology is likely to change labor markets in Africa, developing Asia, emerging Europe, central Asia, southern and eastern Mediterranean, and the Latin American and the Caribbean regions in the coming years. The study identifies concrete policy actions countries in these regions could take to face up to the challenges and seize the opportunities presented by emergent technology., The contents are as follows: Foreword; The future of work in emerging and developing economies / [Nikola Milushev and Carmen Pages; The future of work in Africa / [Kapil Kapoor, Hassanatu Mansaray, Laura Sennett, Oscar Pitti Rivera, Antonio Ocana Marin, and the African Centre for Economic Transformation; The future of work in developing Asia / [Bandini Chhichhia, Sergei Guriev, Alexia Latortue, Nikola Milushev, Alexander Plekhanov, and Valerijs Rezvijs; The future of work in emerging Europe, central Asia, and southern and eastern Mediterranean / [Elisabetta Gentile, Rana Hasan, and Sameer Khatiwada; The future of work in Latin America and the Caribbean / [Dulce Baptista, Mariano Bosch, Manuel Garcia Huitron, Daniel Jaar Michea, Carlos Ospino, Carmen Pages, Laura Ripani, and Graciana Rucci.
Gomez-Pena, A. and Morrison, N. (2018). The future of work: Regional perspectives. Washington, DC: . Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0001059.
White Paper

The future of work: An analysis of the impact of technology on careers educationexternal link icon

2019: CASCAID
The report includes new analysis of data from CASCAID’s career education platform, Kudos, which is actively used by over 2,000 schools. The report compares the results of skills assessments from Kudos with data from surveys with employers. It highlights the stark difference in what students think of their own skills and how they compare to employers’ experiences of school leavers.
CASCAID (2019). The future of work: An analysis of the impact of technology on careers education. Loughborough, UK: . Retrieved from https://www.cascaiDCo.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/The_Future_of_Work_CASCAID_Report-1.pdf.
White Paper

The future of work in America: People and places, today and tomorrowexternal link icon

2019: Lund, S., Manyika, J., Segel, L., Dua, A., Hancock, B., Rutherford, S., and Macon, B. McKinsey Global Institute
The US labor market looks markedly different today than it did two decades ago. It has been reshaped by dramatic events like the Great Recession but also by a quieter ongoing evolution in the mix and location of jobs. In the decade ahead, the next wave of automation technologies may accelerate the pace of change. Millions of jobs could be phased out even as new ones are created. More broadly, the day-to-day nature of work could change for nearly everyone as intelligent machines become fixtures in the American workplace. Until recently, most research on the potential effects of automation, including our own, has focused on the national-level effects. Our previous work ran multiple scenarios regarding the pace and extent of adoption. In the midpoint case, our modeling shows some jobs being phased out but sufficient numbers being added at the same time to produce net positive job growth for the United States as a whole through 2030.
Lund, S., Manyika, J., Segel, L., Dua, A., Hancock, B., Rutherford, S., and Macon, B. (2019). The future of work in America: People and places, today and tomorrow. Report. New York, NY: McKinsey Global Institute. Retrieved from https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/the-future-of-work-in-america-people-and-places-today-and-tomorrow.
White Paper

The future of work in Europe: Automation, workforce transitions, and the shifting geography of employmentexternal link icon

2020: Smit, S., Tacke, T., Lund, S., Manyika, J., and Thiel, L. McKinsey Global Institute
This discussion paper focuses on longer-term trends affecting employment in more than 1,000 local and regional labor markets across Europe at a time when automation adoption is gathering pace. The research was mostly conducted before [Coronavirus Disease 2019] COVID-19 sparked a twin global health and economic crisis. It is too early to tell how the crisis will evolve, but the paper suggests that decisions government and business leaders make today in response to COVID-19 will need to factor in the longer-term trends identified here. The crisis could accelerate some of the trends identified and it could slow down others. The trends include: the differential speeds to automation adoption across Europe's regional labor markets; the growing divergence between the most dynamic cities and shrinking regions across the continent; a decline in labor supply that could create a shortage of workers, particularly in growing sectors and regions; and major shifts in the types of skills and specific occupations that will thrive or be put at risk.
Smit, S., Tacke, T., Lund, S., Manyika, J., and Thiel, L. (2020). The future of work in Europe: Automation, workforce transitions, and the shifting geography of employment. New York, NY: McKinsey Global Institute. Retrieved from https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/the-future-of-work-in-europe.
White Paper

The future of work for Australian graduates: The changing landscape of university-employment transitions in Australiaexternal link icon

2019: Pennington, A. and Stanford, J. Centre for Future Work and Australia Institute
The report begins with a general overview of the major forces driving disruption and change in the Australian labour market. One, of course, is technology: rapid evolution in the scope, capacities, and employment impacts of new innovations like artificial intelligence, advanced robotics, and big data analysis. But technology is not the only disruptive force at work. Dramatic changes in work organisation, business models, and employment relationships are also changing jobs and how we perform them. And all this change occurs in the context of a world grappling with other structural change: from demographic change, environmental change, globalisation, and more. By considering this more complete context, we find that an undue focus on technology as the fundamental and supposedly inexorable driver of change is inappropriate – all the more so given that technology itself is neither neutral nor uncontrollable. Shifting focus back to the social and institutional influences on the world of work, and the collective capacity of society to regulate and shape that world, empowers society to take the future of work more actively into its own hands. Section 2 of the report considers the ongoing evolution of employment patterns (by sector, occupation, and skillset) – both historically and prospectively. It turns out that dramatic structural change in employment patterns is hardly a new phenomenon In Australia. To the contrary, enormous shifts in the nature of employment have already occurred in past decades: with a marked shift from agriculture, and later manufacturing, into services, an equally dramatic shift from manual to cognitive labour, and the revolutionary growth of women’s labour force participation. Australia’s labour force adapted to these changes – and while the transitions were painful at times, they occurred without epochal crisis. Looking forward, all projections anticipate further change. But understanding structural change as a normal feature of the labour market helps defuse the undue hype and even panic that often accompanies current discussions about the future of work. Section 3 dives deeper into changing requirements for skills in the future labour market. It directly challenges certain myths and fads regarding the evolution of skills requirements – including claims that demand for STEM skills will be both insatiable and dominant, claims that lack of “employability” is holding back Australian graduates, and even far-fetched arguments that university degrees themselves will lose their value. Often surprising evidence quantifying skills needs and shortages is presented, confirming that narrow technical and business skills are not, in fact, the ones in shortest supply. A more balanced and nuanced description of the evolution of the skills and capabilities required of future graduates is presented. It turns out that more subtle and flexible skills – including communication, problem-solving, and teamwork – may prove to be the most valuable for a workforce that will have to confront never-ending fluidity in employment, technology, and workplace relationships. Section 4 documents the daunting range of challenges facing young workers, including university graduates, in today’s increasingly precarious labour market. For young people, the prospect of finding a decent, permanent, full-time job with normal entitlements (like paid leave and superannuation) is increasingly far-fetched. Young workers have been the “shock troops” of the precarious labour market: the ones sent in first to confront insecure positions, inadequate and irregular hours, contingent status, and low pay. Even university graduates are experiencing these hardships, as evidenced by the significant deterioration in employment outcomes for graduates since the Global Financial Crisis hit in 2008. Ample evidence attests to the widespread underutilisation of skills possessed by young workers today – who are the besteducated generation of workers in Australia’s history. This leads us to question the very existence of a “skills shortage” in any general sense. To the contrary, rhetoric about the inadequate skills of workers (whether specific occupational skillsets, or broader base capacities) seems more motivated by a desire to blame young workers for their own hardships, rather than an accurate depiction of the real condition of the labour market. Section 5 presents more granular data regarding the employment outcomes of university graduates by field of study, sector, and program. It identifies major trends and shifts in employability. It highlights a particular concern with the increasingly long periods of time required for graduates (especially those holding general degrees) to obtain full-time work – and documents the substantial and lasting costs incurred by graduates as a result. The existence of potential mismatches between the abilities and attributes of new graduates and the needs of employers is investigated. The penultimate Section 6 of the report considers the strengths and weaknesses of current education-to-jobs policies and programs in Australian universities. Clearly more ambitious and flexible efforts are required to anticipate future higher-level skills, adjust curricula accordingly, and then assist graduates in the transition from university to employment. Several promising new initiatives to improve outcomes in this regard are considered, including experiments in expanded work-integrated learning, and the redevelopment of curricula and program design to reflect the increasingly fluid and interdisciplinary nature of many modern occupations. Finally, the report concludes by considering how all stakeholders in Australia’s university system – including universities, governments, industry, the research community, trade unions, and of course students themselves – could collaborate more effectively. Working together, they can construct a system that does a better job of tailoring university offerings to the broad needs of the economy and society (not just specific training requirements of employers), and assist graduates to attain meaningful, decent employment which makes full use of their skills and dedication. Ten specific policy recommendations are presented, drawing directly on the evidence presented in earlier sections of the report. An overarching recommendation is the creation of a national-level higher education policy framework, together with a commitment to building the institutional capacity to implement sector-wide initiatives and undertake comprehensive planning around education-to-jobs processes. It is clear from the evidence assembled in this report that the tasks of anticipating future skills requirements, adjusting curricula and programs accordingly, and then facilitating the movement of students through the higher education process and into productive employment, cannot be left to the supposedly prescient market forces of demand and supply. To the contrary, Australia’s future needs for top-quality university graduates, making their maximum potential contribution to both production and to society in general, are too important to be left to chance. A more deliberate, pro-active approach is needed to ensure that the future of work can be a great one for Australian university graduates.
Pennington, A. and Stanford, J. (2019). The future of work for Australian graduates: The changing landscape of university-employment transitions in Australia. Canberra, Australia: Centre for Future Work and Australia Institute. Retrieved from https://www.futurework.org.au/the_future_of_work_for_australian_graduates.
White Paper

The future of work and youthexternal link icon

2019: European Youth Forum European Youth Forum
The world of work is changing, shaped by four global megatrends: globalisation, climate change, demographic changes, and technological advancements. Each megatrend brings its own unique challenges for young people and the future of work, as well as some opportunities. With the potential of these megatrends to shape the type of work that is required, the type of work that is available, and who undertakes it and how, there is a need to reflect on the role and value of work in society and in people's lives. Changes to the nature of work itself must inevitably lead to discussion on the value and recognition of other contributions to society. Young people are already at a disadvantage in the labour market. They often experience age-based discrimination in terms of their access to quality work, fair wages, or welfare systems. Transitions from education to employment have become increasingly difficult and many of the young people who do find work are caught up in a cycle of precariousness, without access to workers' rights or social protection. The barriers that young people face in accessing their social and economic rights risk being exacerbated in the future of work as new challenges emerge. In this context, this report identifies and discusses five key themes that present challenges and opportunities for young people in Europe in the context of the future of work: skills, access to social protection, workers' rights and wellbeing, just transition and environmental concerns, and equality.This report demonstrates that European governments and institutions must prioritise social protection systems that are inclusive of youth, invest in their education, and support and protect young people's rights, within and outside the workplace. Moving towards a future of work that is not inclusive of all young people can no longer be an option for Europe. The region must strive for a future of work that allows young people, whether in work or not, to feel that their contribution to society is valued; a future of work that respects young people's social and economic rights; and a future of work that helps set the world on a more sustainable path.
European Youth Forum (2019). The future of work and youth. Brussels, Belgium: European Youth Forum. Retrieved from https://www.youthforum.org/future-work-and-youth.
White Paper

The future of work and learning in the age of the 4th industrial revolutionexternal link icon

2018: Desire2Learn
With the convergence of disruptive technologies, including nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, robotics, genetics, and 3D printing, the exponential shift that the fourth industrial revolution brings is altering almost every industry in the world. No part of society will be left untouched, including the education and workforce development sector's role in preparing people for the future of work in this new world. This paper highlights the changing nature of work and how societies must embrace new or hybrid learning models to allow individuals and economies to thrive going forward. Without fundamental transformation in the way we think about lifelong learning and skill development, individuals, communities and whole economies will be left behind. The research for this paper includes a meta-analysis of academic sources and the Canadian edition also includes Colleges and Institutes Canada's (CICAN's) feedback and experience,. The paper seeks to further the debate of the evolution of learning in the 21st century and how we break down the barriers and transform learning so that everyone has the opportunity to succeed, and economies are better positioned to prosper.
Desire2Learn (2018). The future of work and learning in the age of the 4th industrial revolution. D2L Whitepaper Series. Kitchener, ON: . Retrieved from https://www.d2l.com/future-of-work/.
White Paper

The future of women at work: Transitions in the age of automationexternal link icon

2019: Madgavkar, A., Manyika, J., Krishnan, M., Ellingrud, K., Yee, L., Woetzel, J., Chui, M., Hunt, V., and Balakrishnan, S. McKinsey Global Institute
The age of automation, and on the near horizon, artificial intelligence (AI) technologies offer new job opportunities and avenues for economic advancement, but women face new challenges overlaid on long-established ones. Between 40 million and 160 million women globally may need to transition between occupations by 2030, often into higher-skilled roles. To weather this disruption, women (and men) need to be skilled, mobile, and tech-savvy, but women face pervasive barriers on each, and will need targeted support to move forward in the world of work. A new McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) report, The future of women at work: Transitions in the age of automation (PDF–2MB), finds that if women make these transitions, they could be on the path to more productive, better-paid work. If they cannot, they could face a growing wage gap or be left further behind when progress toward gender parity in work is already slow. This new research explores potential patterns in “jobs lost” (jobs displaced by automation), “jobs gained” (job creation driven by economic growth, investment, demographic changes, and technological innovation), and “jobs changed” (jobs whose activities and skill requirements change from partial automation) for women by exploring several scenarios of how automation adoption and job creation trends could play out by 2030 for men and women given current gender patterns in the global workforce. These scenarios are not meant to predict the future; rather, they serve as a tool to understand a range of possible outcomes and identify interventions needed. We use the term jobs as shorthand for full-time-equivalent workers. The research examines six mature economies (Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and four emerging economies (China, India, Mexico, and South Africa), which together account for around half of the world’s population and about 60 percent of global GDP.
Madgavkar, A., Manyika, J., Krishnan, M., Ellingrud, K., Yee, L., Woetzel, J., Chui, M., Hunt, V., and Balakrishnan, S. (2019). The future of women at work: Transitions in the age of automation. Report. New York, NY: McKinsey Global Institute. Retrieved from https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/gender-equality/the-future-of-women-at-work-transitions-in-the-age-of-automation.

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