References

This database has been compiled to provide a searchable repository on published research addressing “future skills” that will be a useful tool for researchers and individuals interested in the future of work and the future of skills.

The database integrates existing bibliographies focused on future skills and the future of work as well as the results of new ProQuest and Google Scholar searches. The process of building the database also involved consultations with experts and the identification of key research organizations publishing in this area, as well as searches of those organizations’ websites. For a more detailed explanation of how the database was assembled, please read the Future Skills Reference Database Technical Note.

The current database, assembled by future skills researchers at the Diversity Institute, is not exhaustive but represents a first step in building a more comprehensive database. It will be regularly updated and expanded as new material is published and identified. In that vein, we encourage those with suggestions for improvements to this database to connect with us directly at di.fsc@ryerson.ca.

From this database, we also selected 39 key publications and created an Annotated Bibliography. It is designed to serve as a useful tool for researchers, especially Canadian researchers, who may need some initial guidance in terms of the key references in this area.

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White Paper

Widening the high school curriculum to include soft skill training: Impacts on health, behaviour, emotional wellbeing and occupational aspirationsexternal link icon

2019: Lordan, G. and McGuire, A. IZA
From 2020 Personal, Social, Health and Economic Education will be compulsory in UK schools for adolescents, however less is known about how it can be taught in a an effective manner. We examine, through a randomised trial, the impact of an evidenced based health related quality of life (HRQoL) curriculum called Healthy Minds that ran in 34 high schools in England over a four-year period. We find robust evidence that Healthy Minds positively augments many physical health domains of treated adolescents. We also find some evidence that Healthy Minds positively affects behaviour, but has no impact on emotional wellbeing. We find notable gender effects, strongly favouring boys. We also present evidence that Healthy Minds changes career aspirations, with those exposed to treatment being less likely to choose competitive work and more likely to choose work that involves "people-skills". Overall our work illustrates the potential for later childhood interventions to promote HRQoL and develop the career aspirations of adolescents.
Lordan, G. and McGuire, A. (2019). Widening the high school curriculum to include soft skill training: Impacts on health, behaviour, emotional wellbeing and occupational aspirations. IZA Discussion Paper Series:12439. Bonn, Germany: IZA. Retrieved from https://www.iza.org/en/publications/dp/12439/widening-the-high-school-curriculum-to-include-soft-skill-training-impacts-on-health-behaviour-emotional-wellbeing-and-occupational-aspirations.
White Paper

Workers in the crowd: The labour market impact of the online platform economyexternal link icon

2019: Cantarella, M. and Strozzi, C. IZA
In this paper, we compare wages and labor market conditions of individuals engaged in online platform work and in traditional occupations by exploiting individual-level survey data on crowdworkers belonging to the largest micro-task marketplaces, focusing on evidence from the United States and Europe. To match similar individuals, survey responses of crowdworkers from the US and EU have been harmonised with the American Working Conditions Survey (AWCS) and the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS). Our findings indicate that traditional workers retain a significant premium in their earnings with respect to online platform workers, and that those differences are not affected by the observed and unobserved ability of individuals. This holds true also taking into account similar levels of routine intensity and abstractness in their jobs, as well as the time spent working. Moreover, labour force in crowdworking arrangements appears to suffer from high levels of under-utilisation, with crowdworkers being more likely to be left wanting for more work than comparable individuals.
Cantarella, M. and Strozzi, C. (2019). Workers in the crowd: The labour market impact of the online platform economy. IZA Discussion Paper Series:12327. Bonn, Germany: IZA. Retrieved from https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/12327/workers-in-the-crowd-the-labour-market-impact-of-the-online-platform-economy.
White Paper

What if we all worked gigs in the cloud? The economic relevance of digital labour platformsexternal link icon

2019: Engels, S. and Sherwood, M. Publications Office of the European Union
This paper looks at the economic impact of digital labour platforms.
Engels, S. and Sherwood, M. (2019). What if we all worked gigs in the cloud? The economic relevance of digital labour platforms. European Economy Discussion Papers:99. Luxembourg, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/what-if-we-all-worked-gigs-cloud-economic-relevance-digital-labour-platforms_en.
White Paper

Trainspotting: 'good jobs', training and skilled immigrationexternal link icon

2019: Mountford, A. and Wadsworth, J. IZA Institute of Labor Economics
While skilled immigration ceteris paribus provides an immediate boost to GDP per capita by adding to the human capital stock of the receiving economy, might it also reduce the number of ’good jobs’, i.e. those with training, available to indigenous workers? This paper analyzes this issue theoretically and empirically. The theoretical model shows how skilled immigration may affect the sectoral allocation of labor and how it may have a positive or negative effect on the training and social mobility of native born workers. The empirical analysis uses UK data from 2001 to 2018 to show that training rates of UK born workers have declined in a period where immigration has been rising strongly, and have declined significantly more in high wage nontraded sectors. At the sectoral level however this link is much less strong but there is evidence of different effects of skilled immigration across traded and non-traded sectors and evidence that the hiring of UK born workers in high wage non-traded sectors has been negatively affected by skilled immigration, although this effect is not large. Taken together the theoretical and empirical analyses suggest that skilled immigration may have some role in allocating native born workers away from ’good jobs’ sectors but it is unlikely to be a major driver of social mobility.
Mountford, A. and Wadsworth, J. (2019). Trainspotting: 'good jobs', training and skilled immigration. IZA Discussion Paper Series:1618. Bonn, Germany: IZA Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved from http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1618.pdf.
White Paper

Training, soft skills and productivity: Evidence from a field experimentexternal link icon

2019: Prada, M., Rucci, G., and Urzua, S.
Understanding the causal association between skills and productivity is essential for designing effective training programs. This paper evaluates an intervention aimed at boosting leadership and communication skills among store managers and sales associates from a large Latin American retailer. The empirical analysis is carried out using longitudinal information gathered by the firm and through two skills surveys. The Identification exploits the experimental design in the context of a difference-in-difference strategy. The results indicate large positive effects of the training program on store-level productivity. We further link these Findings to individual-level performance measures. In particular, we document positive effects on total sales and numbers of transactions for all workers. Regarding the mechanisms, we provide evidence suggesting that the intervention was more effective in boosting leadership skills than communication skills. Spillovers from trained managers to untrained sales representatives also contribute to the main effects. Our findings point towards the possibility of increasing productivity through training programs targeting critical skills.
Prada, M., Rucci, G., and Urzua, S. (2019). Training, soft skills and productivity: Evidence from a field experiment. IDB Working Paper Series: IDB-WP-1015. Bonn, Germany: . Retrieved from https://www.iza.org/en/publications/dp/12447/training-soft-skills-and-productivity-evidence-from-a-field-experiment.
White Paper

The wrong kind of AI?: Artificial intelligence and the future of labor demandexternal link icon

2019: Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P.
Artificial Intelligence is set to influence every aspect of our lives, not least the way production is organized. AI, as a technology platform, can automate tasks previously performed by labor or create new tasks and activities in which humans can be productively employed. Recent technological change has been biased towards automation, with insufficient focus on creating new tasks where labor can be productively employed. The consequences of this choice have been stagnating labor demand, declining labor share in national income, rising inequality and lower productivity growth. The current tendency is to develop AI in the direction of further automation, but this might mean missing out on the promise of the 'right' kind of AI with better economic and social outcomes.
Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P. (2019). The wrong kind of AI?: Artificial intelligence and the future of labor demand. IZA Discussion Paper Series:12292. Bonn, Germany: . Retrieved from https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/12292/the-wrong-kind-of-ai-artificial-intelligence-and-the-future-of-labor-demand.
White Paper

The student journey: Skilling for lifeexternal link icon

2019: Osborne, K., Loveder, P., and Knight, G. National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER)
In this discussion paper, we look at how vocational education and training (VET) supports lifelong learners. We explore VET’s role in assisting lifelong learning and seek to understand how VET will need to transform in the future to enable it to confront the challenges of an increasingly complex and changing world. We also profile the various lifelong learner types.
Osborne, K., Loveder, P., and Knight, G. (2019). The student journey: Skilling for life. Adelaide, Australia: National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER). Retrieved from https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/publications/all-publications/the-student-journey-skilling-for-life.
White Paper

The supply of skill and endogenous technical change: Evidence from a college expansion reformexternal link icon

2018: Carneiro, P., Liu, K., and Salvanes, K.
We examine the labor market consequences of an exogenous increase in the supply of skilled labor in several cities in Norway, resulting from the construction of new colleges in the 1970s. We find that skilled wages increased as a response, suggesting that along with an increase in the supply there was also an increase in demand for skill. We also show that college openings led to an increase in the productivity of skilled labor and investments in R&D. Our findings are consistent with models of endogenous technical change where an abundance of skilled workers may encourage firms to adopt skill-complementary technologies, leading to an upward-sloping long-run demand for skill.
Carneiro, P., Liu, K., and Salvanes, K. (2018). The supply of skill and endogenous technical change: Evidence from a college expansion reform. IZA Discussion Paper Series:11661. Bonn, Germany: . Retrieved from https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/11661/the-supply-of-skill-and-endogenous-technical-change-evidence-from-a-college-expansion-reform.
White Paper

The race against the robots and the fallacy of the giant cheesecake: Immediate and imagined impacts of artificial intelligenceexternal link icon

2019: Naude, W.
After a number of AI-winters, AI is back with a boom. There are concerns that it will disrupt society. The immediate concern is whether labor can win a 'race against the robots' and the longer-term concern is whether an artificial general intelligence (super-intelligence) can be controlled. This paper describes the nature and context of these concerns, reviews the current state of the empirical and theoretical literature in economics on the impact of AI on jobs and inequality, and discusses the challenge of AI arms races. It is concluded that despite the media hype neither massive jobs losses nor a 'Singularity' are imminent. In part, this is because current AI, based on deep learning, is expensive and difficult for (especially small) businesses to adopt, can create new jobs, and is an unlikely route to the invention of a super-intelligence. Even though AI is unlikely to have either utopian or apocalyptic impacts, it will challenge economists in coming years. The challenges include regulation of data and algorithms; the (mis-) measurement of value added; market failures, anti-competitive behaviour and abuse of market power; surveillance, censorship, cybercrime; labor market discrimination, declining job quality; and AI in emerging economies.
Naude, W. (2019). The race against the robots and the fallacy of the giant cheesecake: Immediate and imagined impacts of artificial intelligence. IZA Discussion Paper Series:12218. Bonn, Germany: . Retrieved from https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/12218/the-race-against-the-robots-and-the-fallacy-of-the-giant-cheesecake-immediate-and-imagined-impacts-of-artificial-intelligence.

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