This report has been prepared for Google Australia. It argues that advances in technologies and automation sweeping through everything from supermarket checkouts to farming will drive dramatic shifts in Australia's education and training requirements. The study examined changes in more than 300 jobs, the tasks they involved, and the skills required to do them, to answer three questions: What skills do we need to succeed in the future? When do we need to learn these skills? And how can we acquire the skills we need? It found the most valuable workplace skills to be uniquely human traits such as adaptability, teamwork, creativity and leadership. These skills need to be supported by a broad foundation of skills required to perform a specific task, for example, knowledge of mathematics and biology for vitals monitoring in nursing. The report proposes that workers will need not only more developed 'human traits'; they will also need to adapt more quickly to changes to their jobs and the tasks they involve. On average, every Australian will change jobs 2.4 times over the next two decades, driving a greater need for upskilling and reskilling. Correspondingly, adult education will become far more important in the coming years. Today, the average Australian acquires more than 80 per cent of their knowledge and skills before the age of 21. By 2040, Australians will acquire 41 per cent of their knowledge and skills as adults, with older Australians dedicating an average of six hours out of their working week to education and training. This all means that Australia will need to double its total investment in education and training from a combined 300 billion hours to 600 billion hours over the next two decades. To do this, the nation will need not only the traditional institutions like university and TAFE, but also more on-the-job training and short, online courses.

This paper estimates the wage increases that organizations in 20 major global economies may have to pay to attract and retain highly skilled labor resulting from the expected global talent shortage. It builds on data from our study, The Global Talent Crunch, which modeled the gap between future labor supply and demand to estimate the impending skilled talent shortage at three future milestones: 2020, 2025, and 2030. In The Salary Surge, we project the impact the talent shortage will have on wage bills by mapping Korn Ferry's proprietary global pay data against the skilled labor shortage estimates across the same 20 economies at the same milestone dates. The study focuses on three knowledge-intensive sectors within each market that act as critical drivers of global economic growth - financial and business services; technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT); and manufacturing - and also examines the remainder of each economy outside of these core industries. The report focuses on highly skilled labor, which is where the most acute shortages are found, and uses educational attainment as a commonly accepted proxy for skills.

This study estimates the impending talent crunch by modeling the gap between future labor supply and demand. We uncover the extent of the talent shortfall in 20 major economies at three milestones: 2020, 2025, and 2030. The model focuses on three knowledge-intensive sectors within each market that act as critical drivers of global economic growth: financial and business services; technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT); and manufacturing, and also examines the remainder of each economy. Using level of education as a commonly accepted proxy for skills, and taking into account forecast productivity gains, the study uses available data to forecast shortages for highly skilled, mid-skilled, and low-skilled workers to reveal an imminent talent crunch.

The new technologies hold promises but also significant challenges. Advances in digitalization, artificial intelligence, and automation promise to raise productivity and growth, but they are also bound to reshape the economy and the way we work, with the potential to increase inequality. Given the dimension of the possible changes, it will take a comprehensive and coordinated policy response to secure growth that is widely shared. These policies will also raise challenges for public finances. A better understanding of the changes afoot is critical. Coverage of the new digital economy in the national accounts and labor statistics is incomplete, introducing some inaccuracy into productivity measures and complicating the monitoring of ongoing structural changes such as the growth of new forms of work organized around digital platforms. Closing these data gaps is essential to better understand, observe, and ultimately meet the challenges ahead. Policymakers should facilitate technological change, smooth adjustment and ensure that gains are equally shared, while updating policy frameworks where needed.

Many sectors of Queensland’s economy are currently experiencing significant change with implications for the future of work. Through our work with stakeholders, Jobs Queensland has seen how Queensland’s industries and regions are changing. The impact of digital technologies and involvement in global value chains are driving changes in workforce composition and skills. Queensland faces many of the same issues that are impacting global economies, for example, accelerating uptake of digital technologies, changing demographic and social profiles, low wage and productivity growth, and perceived growing inequality. This literature review looks at the impacts of three drivers of change of the future of work: 1. technology impacts 2.demographic and social changes 3. legal, institutional and policy influences. Much of the literature and commentary on the future of work takes an international focus or is focused on Australia at the national level. This project places a particular emphasis on the impacts and implications of the future of work on individuals, businesses and communities in Queensland. Globalisation is another important element – as both an influence towards and the outcome of changes from the three drivers. It has been and remains a driver of change in work and the demand for skills (Australian Industry Group [AiG], 2016a; Becker, Bradley, and Smidt, 2015; Dolphin, 2015). Globalisation creates structural change not only in industries but also in regions as the industrial composition of a region changes in response to changing global consumer demand. This impacts the social structure of the region as well as its demographic composition as people move into or out of a region in response (Jones and Tee, 2017; Aither, 2014). The impact of globalisation is expected to increase as digital technologies increasingly enable the movement of labour virtually (Baldwin, 2018). We are seeing teleworking becoming mainstream, the rise of the ‘digital nomad’ where a person can work from anywhere in the world, and contingent employment models (Roos and Shroff, 2017). These changes will influence where we work, how we work and when we work, with some commentators predicting the ‘rise of the individual’ who will drive future employment models (Deloitte, 2018, April 5; KPMG, 2013). Precarious work is perceived to be on the rise in Australia as the nation transitions to a services and knowledge-based economy. The industries experiencing the most employment growth are service industries which traditionally offer lower skilled, lower paid, part-time and casualised employment. Even in the professional, scientific and technical services sector, a highskilled and high-wage employment sector, the rise of the gig economy is impacting the quality of work available (Australian Council of Trade Unions, 2018a). It is often thought that the major driver of this change is the uptake of digital technologies. Frey and Osborne (2013), with their focus on the impact of technology on jobs, forecast mass unemployment by 2030. Modelling was based on consideration of the impact of technology on whole jobs. More recent research recognises that a job is made up of a series of tasks requiring a range of skills. These studies highlight that the impact of technology is most likely to be at task level (Nedelkoska and Quintini, 2018; Bakhshi, Downing, Osborne and Schneider, 2017; Arntz, Zierhan and Gregory, 2016). Depending on the number of tasks that could potentially be automated, a small proportion of jobs may become obsolete. Importantly, however, all jobs will be impacted at some level and workers will need the skills gained through a lifelong learning mindset to meet changing job demands (AiG, 2016c).It is important to remember that technology-driven change is not new. Predictions that technology will make humans redundant have been made since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 1800s (Lawlor and Tovey, 2011; Boreham, Parker, Thompson and Hall, 2008). To date the predictions have not come true, and there is no evidence yet that this time will be any different. In the past, major technological advances have led to increased productivity and improved quality of life as difficult and dangerous tasks were no longer performed by humans. More recent research acknowledges that technology is not the only driver to impact the future of work. Society and demographics will also influence the nature of work organisation and work arrangements in 2030 (Harris, Kimson and Schwedel, 2018). In the last 100 years the global population has almost quadrupled (Goldin, 2016). Together with a proliferation of new technologies, these factors are driving changes in the economic and industrial composition of nations. Australia is not immune to these changes, as with many developed countries it is facing the impacts of: • An ageing population (Balliester and Elsheikhi, 2018; Becker et al., 2015). • Women entering the workforce in increasing numbers and who are better educated than at any other time in history (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, 2018). • Young people are staying in education longer and acquiring higher levels of education (Australian Bureau of Statistics [ABS], 2017, November 6). • Young people, indigenous Australians and people with disabilities experience high levels of underemployment and/or unemployment (OECD, 2018a; Lowe, 2018). • Many people from migrant and refugee backgrounds are not having their skills recognised or fully utilised within employment (Deloitte Access Economics, 2018b). While increasing longevity is currently perceived at times as a ‘problem’, it need not be so. We are living longer, are healthier and are more engaged than previous generations, which opens up opportunities and challenges for everyone (Gratton and Scott, 2016). This changing demographic profile is seeing a growth in the proportion of people aged 65 and older remaining in the workforce and increased demand for services that cater to this older generation. With the combination of an ageing existing workforce and the entrance of post-millenials from 2019, the world will - for the first time - see five generations in the workplace (Select Committee on the Future of Work and Workers, 2018). This will bring greater diversity of age and experience to enterprises, driving the need to develop and utilise skills to manage and engage such diversity. Over the last 40 years, the Australian government has implemented many important structural reforms. The reforms have helped see the nation today enter its 28th year of uninterrupted annual economic growth (Tang, 2018). There are concerns that workplace laws have failed to keep pace with emerging trends, for example, the rise in non-standard work (Select Committee on the Future of Work and Workers, 2018). People are entering and exiting the workforce at multiple points (Buchanan, Verma and Yu, 2014) or seeking alternate work arrangements that meet their lifestyle requirements (Manyika et al., 2017; Roos and Shroff, 2017; AiG, 2016c). This is bringing into question the concept of a ‘standard employment relationship’ (Stanford, 2017).

This report examines the way in which the organisation of work is changing - from workforces to workplaces - and the implications of these changes for Australia. With alternative forms of employment, freelancing and the gig economy on the rise, the traditional notion of holding down a steady job or two for an entire career is receding fast. As new technologies and automation take over some of the tasks previously performed by human labour, and industries move offshore, the service sector continues to forge ahead as the major player in the future of work. The authors ask if we are placing too much emphasis on technology and not enough on the quality of jobs that we should strive to create in the workplaces of the future? Is now the time for workers to return to education and begin re-skilling? What kinds of careers can our children expect and where should they focus their education?

The Furnishing Industry plays an important role servicing urban and regional areas in all Australian states and territories. There are major hubs located on the eastern seaboard. A number of specialised sectors make up the Australian Furnishing Industry including: Blinds, awnings, security screens and grills installation; Flooring technology; Furniture design and technology also known as furniture manufacturing; Furniture finishing also known as French polishing; Glass and glazing; Interior decoration and design; Kitchen/bathroom/cabinet design, manufacture and installation; Manufacturing of bedding, blinds, awnings, security screens and grills (commercial/residential); Picture framing; Timber and composite machining also known as wood machining., The skills forecast includes: Sector overview - industry snapshot, training snapshot, challenges and opportunities; Employment and skills outlook; Key drivers for change and proposed responses; Training product review - current activities: 2016-17 activities, 2017-18 activities; Training product review - priorities 2018-2022; Proposed schedule of work 2018-19 to 2021-22; 2018-19 Case for change; Appendix A: Future skills outcomes - trends, considerations for training; Appendix B: Employment in furnishing occupations; Appendix C: Employment in furnishing occupations by age group; Appendix D: Occupation classifications; Appendix E: Training package enrolment snapshot.

Information on future job opportunities is useful for a range of purposes. It can help students and career advisors make choices about training pathways, and can help policymakers in their long-term planning of the education and training system. This report provides forecasts of job openings by industry and occupation for new entrants to the labour market from 2017 to 2024. These job openings are estimated by accounting for both growth (or decline) in the occupation or industry as well as the replacement needs due to workers leaving the occupation., Key messages: (1) the total number of job openings over the forecast period 2017 to 2024 will be about 516 600 per year (4.1 million in total), with more than half of these resulting from replacement demand; (2) the results show employment continuing to shift towards higher-skill jobs in the labour market, with a slight acceleration in this trend with higher productivity growth; (3) the highest number of job openings, 121 700 per year (973 600 in total), will be in professional occupations; the second highest, 71 300 per year (570 600 in total), will be for managers; these figures reflect the demand in higher skill levels; (4) in some occupations, a high proportion of the job openings is due to replacement demand rather than employment growth; very high replacement demand is seen in occupations with low entry requirements and low wages, which to date have typically attracted young people, who stay in the occupation for short periods; examples due to replacement demand include hospitality workers, checkout operators and cashiers, and food preparation assistants (75.6 per cent, 89.4 per cent and 80.9 per cent); (5) replacement demand is high for occupations with relatively older workforces, a consequence of workers’ proximity to retirement; an example of high retirement-replacement demand includes farmers and farm managers, with 63.3 per cent of the 80 900 job openings (10 100 per year); (6) reasonably high proportions of job openings due to replacement demand are also found amongst technicians and trade workers (for example, 60.4 per cent for bricklayers, carpenters and joiners and 61.1 per cent for automotive electricians and mechanics); this can have training implications - as experienced workers leave, there are fewer available to supervise apprentices; additionally, as apprenticeship training takes time, and completion rates can be low, sufficient recruitment is needed to avoid future shortages; and (7) the analyses demonstrate the importance of considering replacement demand when assessing job openings for new entrants; job openings can reflect future job opportunities; they can also provide a way to assess future training needs where training is required in an occupation.

The international community has adopted a framework for action 'Education 2030 Agenda', which devotes considerable attention to technical and vocational skills development, with the aim to improve access, enhance relevance and eliminate gender disparity. Mobilizing the means for such an ambitious skills agenda is crucial. The use of financial resources must be optimised and additional resources need to be mobilised. This publication takes stock of recent developments regarding the mobilisation of private sector resources., The publication begins with an analysis of international trends in financing technical and vocational education and training (TVET) with particular focus on levies schemes and training funds. It then presents a methodology to evaluate the potential of private sector investment in TVET in countries that have adopted levies schemes. This approach is then illustrated by three country case studies in Cyprus, the Dominican Republic and Senegal. Finally, the publication demonstrates how the levy base/rate directly impacts upon the amount of revenue able to be raised. The publication also highlights other factors that could influence the outcome achieved by the relevant levy, such as the economic and institutional context and the general conditions of the labour market.