White Paper

The recent enlargement of the European Union (EU) has fundamentally changed migration patterns to the UK. Over the past five years, it has brought hundreds of thousands of new EU citizens into the UK’s society and labour market. The new migration poses distinctive new challenges for those who work to promote equality in the UK. An estimated 1.5 million workers have come to the UK from new EU member states since May 2004, and the number of eastern European nationals resident in the UK has increased to about 700,000. Not only have eastern Europeans made up about half of labour immigration in recent years; they also differ substantially from the UK’s previous immigrant groups. The catch-all term ‘eastern Europeans’ refers to a heterogeneous group of migrants who come to the UK for contrasting motivations and for varying time periods. On average, however, these individuals (and especially Polish people) are young and work for low wages in low skill jobs, even if they are highly educated (in other words they ‘downgrade’ and have a lower return on their education achievements than other migrant groups). Unlike other groups they work across the country in diverse and dispersed locations. EU freedom of movement has given recent migrants substantial flexibility, and this is reflected in their patterns of work and mobility. The new EU citizens’ migration strategies have often been distinctively informal. Many rely on recruitment agencies and strong social networks for employment, while often exhibiting ‘circular’ or ‘shuttling’ movement to and from the UK. Many come without knowing how long they will stay, while some move between the UK and their home country on a regular basis. A large proportion have found work in unskilled occupations, often in areas that have not typically attracted substantial immigration. The recent migration is still in flux, and we should expect continued change and fluctuation in its nature and volume; not least in response to the economic crisis.

Low-skilled prime-age men are less likely to be employed than high-skilled prime-age men, and the differential has increased since the 1970s. I build a search model encompassing three explanations: (1) factors increasing the value of leisure, such as welfare and recreational gaming/computer technology, reduced the supply of low-skilled workers; (2) automation and trade reduced the demand for low-skilled workers; and (3) factors affecting job search, such as online job boards, reduced frictions for high-skilled workers. I find a supply shift had little effect, while a demand shift away from low-skilled workers was the leading cause, and search frictions actually reduced employment inequality.

The 2015 Engineers Canada Labour Market Study provides supply and demand projections for 14 engineering occupations. The report highlights a large and growing need to replace retiring engineers as they exit the workforce. This is particularly relevant for civil, mechanical, electrical and electronic engineers as well as computer engineers. Replacement demand for engineers is an important theme that will be relevant for the next decade as the baby boom generation retires.

The 2015 Engineers Canada Labour Market Study provides supply and demand projections for 14 engineering occupations. The report highlights a large and growing need to replace retiring engineers as they exit the workforce. This is particularly relevant for civil, mechanical, electrical and electronic engineers as well as computer engineers. Replacement demand for engineers is an important theme that will be relevant for the next decade as the baby boom generation retires.

An enormous amount of literature has emerged over the last few years in the context of the “Future of Work”. Academics, think tanks and policy makers have fuelled rich discussions about how the future of work might look like and how we can shape it. Indeed, labour markets in developing and developed countries are likely to undergo major transformations in the next years and decades. However, despite a growing body of research in this area, there exists no universally accepted definition of what exactly the “Future of Work” encompasses and what the most relevant drivers are. Accordingly, there is a vast variety of themes and methods covered by the literature on the Future of Work. Few papers cut across a multidimensional analysis of the different potential drivers of change. This literature review provides the first systematic and synoptic overview of topics discussed under the umbrella of the “Future of Work”. It not only highlights the trends of the most important drivers as discussed in existing studies, it also defines what the expected outcomes of the future of work might be. The review first devises a structure based on key labour market dimensions and then categorises findings from the literature conditioned on such dimensions. It also contains an assessment on the coverage of the studies on the future of work and perceived limitations and thematic gaps.

The occupational projections prepared under the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) require the production of a macroeconomic scenario and an industrial scenario to determine future long-term trends in overall employment growth and in the distribution of employment across industries and occupations. The future long-term trends in Canada’s economic growth and industrial structure will be heavily influenced by demographic developments, namely slower population growth and population aging. Such demographic changes, which cannot be avoided, are projected to have a major influence in the long-term evolution of Canada's labour force, employment, potential output, final domestic demand, and industrial composition of the economy. This report presents the industrial scenario that underlies the 2017 COPS projections. This scenario was developed in collaboration with the Conference Board of Canada based on information available as of Spring 2017. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the historical and future trends for each of the 42 industries defined by COPS. Those 42 industries cover the entire economy and are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), edition 2012

Computer scientists are working on reproducing all human skills using artificial intelligence, machine learning and robotics. Unsurprisingly then, many people worry that these advances will dramatically change work skills in the years ahead and perhaps leave many workers unemployable. This report develops a new approach to understanding these computer capabilities by using a test based on the OECD’s Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) to compare computers with human workers. The test assesses three skills that are widely used at work and are an important focus of education: literacy, numeracy and problem solving with computers. Most workers in OECD countries use the three skills every day. However, computers are close to reproducing these skills at the proficiency level of most adults in the workforce. Only 13% of workers now use these skills on a daily basis with a proficiency that is clearly higher than computers. The findings raise troubling questions about whether most workers will be able to acquire the skills they need as these new computer capabilities are increasingly used over the next few decades. To answer those questions, the report’s approach could be extended across the full range of work skills. We need to know how computers and people compare across all skills to develop successful policies for work and education for the future.

In this report we’ll examine what gigging means and the extent to which Gen Y high fliers are choosing it as an alternative career path. We look at some of the key drivers and motivations behind their choices and the reactions of their Baby Booming parents. Finally, we'll look at future gigging trends and the implications of the rise of the “Gigging Economy” for businesses wanting to recruit and retain the very best talent in this generation of workers. Our research indicates that the gigging trend will require businesses to evolve their thinking around how they structure workforces and workplaces – and indeed perhaps redefine the very concept of what “work” is.

The German government has been consulting on how jobs will be impacted by technology, and how workers could be supported effectively in the future.