White Paper

One million workers will retire between 2015 and 2024 in Quebec, while there will be 140,000 workers less for 630,000 pensioners over in 2030. Without extra effort to mitigate these demographic risks and to increase productivity, potential GDP Quebec will decline by 0.7% or 1%. At the same time, two external phenomena in Quebec will influence the portrait of the workforce: automation and robotics, as well as new business models. No economic sector or organization is immune to these phenomena which affect many professions. In the past, technology has created more jobs in the long term than they have removed. Today, although the first estimates of the number of categories and technologically threatened jobs and speed of arrival of new digital tools remain speculative, they point to cause concern. Imagination missing to really predict positive impact (new trades, more satisfying jobs); Nevertheless, some 1.4 million Quebec workers will be affected (new tasks, new technological unemployed, people experiencing underemployment or in search of new formations). Occupations requiring non-routine cognitive work will be more immune robots and intelligent software (tasks requiring capacities of non-standard analysis, improvisation, solving new problems, creativity, transmission know, supervising others, autonomy and social skills). This kind of work and skills are already well established in Quebec. Meanwhile, new business models take advantage of this automation and can cause the elimination of established companies long and the arrival of new local or foreign economic players. The demand services, the measure, services and distance shopping, all-connected and immediate, making 3D printing and collaborative economy will continue to rise, stimulating SMEs and entrepreneurship. Side effects both on regulations on revenues and public policy are inevitable, requiring competent and proactive public service. [googletranslate_en]

This study focuses on the risk of automation and its interaction with training and the use of skills at work. Building on the expert assessment carried out by Carl Frey and Michael Osborne in 2013, the paper estimates the risk of automation for individual jobs based on the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC). The analysis improves on other international estimates of the individual risk of automation by using a more disaggregated occupational classification and identifying the same automation bottlenecks emerging from the experts’ discussion. Hence, it more closely aligns to the initial assessment of the potential automation deriving from the development of Machine Learning. Furthermore, this study investigates the same methodology using national data from Germany and United Kingdom, providing insights into the robustness of the results. The risk of automation is estimated for the 32 OECD countries that have participated in the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) so far. Beyond the share of jobs likely to be significantly disrupted by automation of production and services, the accent is put on characteristics of these jobs and the characteristics of the workers who hold them. The risk is also assessed against the use of ICT at work and the role of training in helping workers transit to new career opportunities.

Middle-skill jobs make up the largest portion of the labor market, yet employers can’t find enough workers trained to the middle-skill level. At the same time, many low-skilled and low-income people need better access to middle-skill training and jobs. Sector partnerships help solve these problems. Through sector partnerships, employers work together with education, training, labor, and community-based organizations to address their industry’s local skill needs. Sector partnerships are a proven strategy for helping workers prepare for middle skill jobs and helping employers find skilled workers.

A small minority of high-growth businesses hold the key to job creation and wider prosperity. New research published by NESTA shows that the 6 per cent of UK businesses with the highest growth rates generated half of the new jobs created by existing businesses between 2002 and 2008. Although these companies came from across the country and from all sectors of the economy, they had one important factor in common: they were far more likely to be innovative, and the research shows that their innovation was a source of growth. This has important implications for the Government: it suggests that economic policy should focus on promoting innovation and on the small number of companies with high growth potential, rather than broadly based business support programmes for new start-ups and SMEs. More importantly, it shows that an approach of backing excellence and innovation is not an elitist policy: rather, it is the best way of generating employment and opportunity. This goal forms the basis of NESTA’s research agenda, investment activities and practical programmes.

The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the next four decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: People are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. This report presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.

Recent years have yielded significant advances in computing and communication technologies, with profound impacts on society. Technology is transforming the way we work, play, and interact with others. From these technological capabilities, new industries, organizational forms, and business models are emerging. Technological advances can create enormous economic and other benefits but can also lead to significant changes for workers. IT and automation can change the way work is conducted, by augmenting or replacing workers in specific tasks. This can shift the demand for some types of human labor, eliminating some jobs and creating new ones. Information Technology and the U.S. Workforce explores the interactions between technological, economic, and societal trends and identifies possible near-term developments for work. This report emphasizes the need to understand and track these trends and develop strategies to inform, prepare for, and respond to changes in the labor market. It offers evaluations of what is known, notes open questions to be addressed, and identifies promising research pathways moving forward.

At first, technologists issued dystopian alarms about the power of automation and artificial intelligence (AI) to destroy jobs. Then came a correction, with a wave of reassurances. Now, the discourse appears to be arriving at a more complicated understanding, suggesting that automation will bring neither apocalypse nor utopia, but instead both benefits and stress alike. Such is the ambiguous and sometimes disembodied nature of the "future of work" discussion. Hence the analysis presented here. Intended to bring often-inscrutable trends down to earth, the following report develops both backward and forward-looking analyses of the impacts of automation over the years 1980 to 2016 and 2016 to 2030 to assess past and upcoming trends as they affect both people and communities in the United States. The report focuses on areas of potential occupational change rather than net employment losses or gains. Special attention is applied to digging beneath national top-line statistics to explore industry, geographical, and demographic variations. Finally, the report concludes by suggesting a comprehensive response framework for national and state-local policymakers.

Over the past half century, wave after wave of digital innovation has ensured that “digitalization” the diffusion of digital technologies into nearly every business and workplace and pocket has been remaking the U.S. economy and the world of work. So rapid are the developments, in fact, that while the “digitalization of everything” has become a hallmark of tech’s promise of empowerment, it has begun to prompt widespread anxiety, including among workers who worry about their future in an age of brilliant machines. And yet, for all of the evidence that big changes are underway, surprisingly little data exists to track the spread of digital adoption. In the absence of such information, the digitalization trend, as prominent as it is, remains diffuse and hard to pin down. Hence this report: Designed to clarify a major trend, the present assessment provides a detailed analysis of changes in the digital content of 545 occupations covering 90 percent of the workforce in all industries since 2001.

Where are the robots, exactly? One answer—if you read the steady flow of doomy articles online — is that automation is everywhere, not just all over the media but (you would have to conclude) thoroughly infiltrating the economy. In that sense, the trend seems omnipresent even as it spawns a kind of free-floating dread amongst the chattering class. Yet, that can’t be right. Almost nothing in today’s economy is evenly distributed, whether it be technology, productivity, output, or inclusive prosperity. And so, it is worth getting more specific about where exactly automation may displace workers — and where not.