White Paper

This Working Futures Sectoral Report provides a more detailed analysis for each of the 22 industries based on the new SIC2007, as distinguished in the main report (Wilson and Homenidou (2011). These categories have been used to describe the main sectoral developments occurring across the whole economy. The industries are defined in the following table. Some of the industry groups are quite small in employment terms. Results here should be treated with caution, especially if delving below the national level to examine the more detailed results for the devolved nations and English Regions that underlie them.

Working Futures 2012-2022 is the latest in a series of quantitative assessments of the employment prospects in the UK labour market over a ten-year horizon. It presents historical trends and future prospects by sector for the UK and its constituent nations and the English regions. The prime focus of Working Futures is on the demand for skills as measured by employment by occupation and qualification, although the supply side is also considered. Its prime objective is to provide useful labour market information that can help to inform policy development and strategy around skills, careers and employment, for both policy makers and a much wider audience. The results are intended to provide a sound statistical foundation for reflection and debate among all those with an interest in the demand for and supply of skills. This includes individuals, employers, education and training providers, as well as the various agencies and departments of government. Sectoral change is one of the key drivers of the changing demand for skills. The main analysis focuses on broad sectors, but this is built up from a much more detailed picture of change by industry. The projections are based on the use of a multi-sectoral, regional macroeconomic model, combined with occupational, replacement demand and qualification modules. The results take account of the latest official data published by the Office for National Statistics. These data are used to paint a comprehensive and detailed picture of the changing face of the UK economy and labour market. A separate Technical Report (Wilson et al. 2014) provides full details of sources and methods used to produce the results, including information about even more detailed sub-national / sub-regional results. The future cannot be predicted with precision or certainty. But all the participants in the labour market make plans for the future. The rationale behind Working Futures is that a comprehensive, systematic, consistent and transparent set of projections can help to inform everyone about the world they are likely to face.

[This report represents] the most detailed and comprehensive set of UK labour market projections available. The results provide a picture of employment prospects by industry, occupation, qualification level, gender and employment status for the UK and for nations and English regions up to 2020. These projections form a core part of the base of labour market intelligence that is available to support policy development and strategy around careers, skills and employment. As with all projections and forecasts, the results presented in [the report] should be regarded as indicative of likely trends and orders of magnitude given a continuation of past patterns of behaviour and performance, rather than precise forecasts of the future. At a time of great uncertainty about the short to medium term prospects for the economy, it is important to stress the value of [the report] in aiding understanding of likely prospects for employment in the longer term (i.e. in 2020). The reader should therefore focus on the relative position of sectors, and occupations in 2020 and treat the projected values as broad indicators of scale rather than exact predictions.

As workplace automation increasingly becomes the norm, myths about artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics are giving way to new realities of what it will take to engage and lead talent in an evolving work ecosystem. The use of workplace automation is expected to nearly double in the next three years according to our 2017 Global Future of Work Survey. While survey respondents report that 12% of work is currently being done using AI and robotics versus just 7% three years ago, they anticipate that this figure will rise to 22% in the next three years. With the surge in workplace automation, employers are moving beyond automation myths and stereotypes. A growing number recognize the need for breakthrough approaches in talent and rewards as well as leadership activities in order to optimally manage the many emerging work options ranging from contingent labor to automation. But few employers are fully prepared to implement the organizational changes required to meet this challenge.

This report investigates differences in women- and men-owned firms’ intellectual property holdings (including patents), their research and development activities, product innovations, and the relationships between innovative activities and business outcomes such as revenues and access to capital and start-up funding. The report also presents analysis of the characteristics of female and male- owned employer firms, including their size and industry locations. Analysis presented in the report rely on data from the Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs, a relatively new dataset available through the U.S. Census Bureau, that includes data on businesses’ innovation activities disaggregated by gender, and by race and ethnicity.

This report examines the digital and creative sector in the UK, the challenges it faces over the medium term and how they can be addressed through skill development and thereby bring about growth and contribute to the recovery of the UK economy. The sector comprises digital technology, and creative activities. The digital technology sub-sector provides the infrastructure and platforms through which creative content is often delivered. While the creative industries include film, TV, radio, computer games, publishing, advertising, music, performing/visual arts, design and cultural heritage. Over the years there has been greater synergy between the digital and creative sub-sectors. For instance, digital technology is transforming the creative sector (particularly creative media industries) as well as being an important driver behind the growth of ICT products and services.

This report examines the tourism sector in the UK, the challenges it faces over the medium term, how they can be addressed through skill development and how the sector can grow and contribute to the recovery of the UK economy. The sector comprises restaurants and bars (which employ just over half of all workers in the sector), sport and recreation activities, hotels and other accommodation, travel agencies and tour operators, and gambling and betting.

The dramatic aging of the U.S. population in coming decades is expected to have important implications for the home remodeling industry. Of the over 25 million households age 65 and over today, the Joint Center estimates that 44 percent have some need for home accessibility features due to disability or difficulty using components of the home, such as kitchen or bathroom facilities, without assistance. And yet, the current housing stock is not especially equipped to meet the accessibility needs of an aging nation, as not even a third of homes have what could be considered basic accessibility features: a no-step entry and bedroom and full bathroom on the entry level. While some aging households will look to move into homes that are better suited to their needs, many others will choose to remain in their current homes and communities and “age in place,” finding out of preference or necessity that they will need to remodel their homes to fit their changing needs. Indeed, older homeowners already account for nearly half of total home improvement spending today, compared to their historical share of 30 percent. And although 45 percent of older homeowners plan to undertake improvement projects with the intent of making their homes easier to live in as they age, surprisingly few owners are focused on home accessibility as part of aging in place comfortably and safely. As the number and share of older households rise sharply over the coming decade, construction of new housing with basic accessibility features is projected to fall considerably short of increased demand in the Northeast and Midwest regions of the country. Fully 40 percent of the net gain in households age 65 and older with accessibility needs in these regions is projected to have unmet demand, suggesting the need for significant retrofit spending on existing homes to narrow this supply-demand gap.

Across the globe, new technologies are transforming the nature of work. Advances in robotics and artificial intelligence are displacing jobs in manufacturing and, increasingly, in the service sector. And while automation may boost productivity and overall economic growth, there is a recognition that it will also disrupt the workplace, with repercussions for workers, employers, education systems and governments.