White Paper

We study the extent to which manufacturing decline and local housing booms contributed to changes in labor market outcomes during the 2000s, focusing primarily on the distributional consequences across geographical areas and demographic groups. Using a local labor markets design, we estimate that manufacturing decline significantly reduced employment between 2000 and 2006, while local housing booms increased employment by roughly the same magnitude. The effects of manufacturing decline persist through 2012, but we find no persistent employment effects of local housing booms, likely because housing booms were associated with subsequent busts of similar magnitude. These results suggest that housing booms œmasked negative employment growth that would have otherwise occurred earlier in the absence of the booms. This œmasking occurred both within and between cities and demographic groups. For example, manufacturing decline disproportionately affected older men without a college education, while the housing boom disproportionately affected younger men and women, as well as immigrants. Applying our local labor market estimates to the national labor market, we find that roughly 40 percent of the reduction in employment during the 2000s can be attributed to manufacturing decline and that these negative effects would have appeared in aggregate employment statistics earlier had it not been for the large, temporary increases in housing demand.

The report, The Dimensions of Insecure Work: A Factbook, reviews eleven statistical indicators of the growth in employment insecurity over the last five years: including part-time work, short hours, underemployment, casual jobs, marginal self-employment, and jobs paid minimum wages under modern awards. All these indicators of job stability have declined since 2012, thanks to a combination of weak labour market conditions, aggressive profit strategies by employers, and passivity by labour regulators. Together, these trends have produced a situation where over 50 per cent of Australian workers now experience one or more of these dimensions of insecurity in their jobs – and less than half have access to “standard,” more secure employment. The report also documents the low and falling earnings received by workers in insecure jobs. While real wages for those in permanent full-time positions (the best-paid category) have grown, wages for casual workers have declined. And part-time workers in marginal self-employed positions (including so-called “gig” workers) have fared the worst: with real wages falling 26 percent in the last five years.

The labour market is increasingly demanding higher skill levels in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM). And, the market is paying women above-average wages in these fields. It will be difficult to narrow the overall gender wage gap if women fail to make stronger inroads into STEM fields. ¢ Aptitude differentials in math among girls and boys as the source of women underrepresentation in STEM has been debunked many times over. The causes are numerous and complex, but include marginalization within educational and corporate institutions. ¢ Within the workplace, employers need to revisit whether ongoing marginalization is present. Women who acquire a degree in STEM are disproportionately slotted into lower paying technical roles.

Skills shortages have developed in certain fields and regions in recent years. Earnings premiums for people in some professions, notably health, engineering and skilled trades have increased. And vacancy rates have risen for skilled trades, with the increase being particularly large in Alberta and Saskatchewan. While reforms have been implemented to strengthen adjustment so as to overcome these shortages, there is still room to go further by improving labour market information, increasing responsiveness of the education and training system to labour market demand, making the immigration system more reactive to current labour market conditions and reducing regulatory barriers to inter-provincial labour mobility. This Working Paper relates to the 2014 OECD Economic Review of Canada.

This report provides findings from the Canadian Education and Research Institute for Counselling (CERIC) National Business Survey, based on a telephone survey conducted between October 25 and November 11, 2013 with a sample of 500 senior executives from Canadian businesses. The sample was designed to conduct interviews with senior staff of businesses across Canada, of various sizes, location (urban, rural and suburban) and industries. The National Business Survey focused on several topics that pertain to Canadian employers and organizations, in particular those reflecting executives' perceptions on challenges facing Canadian businesses in general, the skilled labour shortage and skills gaps, and approaches toward employee training and finding workers with appropriate technical and soft skills, young workers as well as career management practices. Key research highlights are summarized below.

In Canada, there has been little objective, aggregate data available about how post-secondary career centres operate. This study was developed to be able to provide current benchmarking data to career services leaders about three major areas of concern: - Financial, human and spacial resources - Services provided to students, alumni, employers and other stakeholders - Metrics collected and reported In addition to collecting this data in aggregate across Canada, this study also looked for differences in these areas across institution type, geographic region, and career centre type. Relationships between these three areas - resources, services and metrics - were also investigated in an attempt to provide career centres with useful data to use when making decisions. This study provided three significant conclusions reported in this research brief: - Career centres continue to do more with fewer resources. Career centres would benefit from increased collaboration around best practices for how they are increasing efficiency, utilizing technology and avoiding staff burnout. - Career centres who can position themselves more central to their institutional mission generally receive more funding and staffing. - Career centres would benefit from longitudinal data to better identify trends, successes and challenges. It is hoped that career centre staff, institutional administrations and others can use the data presented in this research brief to make better-informed decisions about how to operate their career centres. CACEE proposes to run a similar survey every two years to collect longitudinal data and, thus, would appreciate feedback on how this study could be more useful to you in your day to day work.

In Canada, there has been little objective, aggregate data available about how post-secondary career centres operate. This study was developed to be able to provide current benchmarking data to career services leaders about three major areas of concern: - Financial, human and spacial resources - Services provided to students, alumni, employers and other stakeholders - Metrics collected and reported In addition to collecting this data in aggregate across Canada, this study also looked for differences in these areas across institution type, geographic region, and career centre type. Relationships between these three areas - resources, services and metrics - were also investigated in an attempt to provide career centres with useful data to use when making decisions. This study provided three significant conclusions reported in this research brief: - Career centres continue to do more with fewer resources. Career centres would benefit from increased collaboration around best practices for how they are increasing efficiency, utilizing technology and avoiding staff burnout. - Career centres who can position themselves more central to their institutional mission generally receive more funding and staffing. - Career centres would benefit from longitudinal data to better identify trends, successes and challenges. It is hoped that career centre staff, institutional administrations and others can use the data presented in this research brief to make better-informed decisions about how to operate their career centres. CACEE proposes to run a similar survey every two years to collect longitudinal data and, thus, would appreciate feedback on how this study could be more useful to you in your day to day work.

This report reviews the findings of a number of other key reports on the future of work and applies their approaches to the Canadian context in order to describe the future of work in Canada. The report identifies a number of technological drivers of these changes, including artificial intelligence. Based on this analysis, the authors suggest that as many as 2 million Canadians could lose their jobs by 2030. Critically, they also argue that these new developments can produce new opportunities as well as losses and highlight the key changes that must be made in order for Canadians to take advantage of these opportunities. Specifically, the report recommends that a third pillar be added to Canada’s existing skills development infrastructure. This third pillar, which would complement Canada’s traditional education and its system for supporting workers who leave the workforce, would support working adults by focusing on adult skills training. This third pillar could include a number of new initiatives, such as the development of a Skills Plan for Working Canadians to guide governmental action. The authors argue that any such skills plan should focus on [1] convening a broad conversation and national commitment to adult skills training; [2] ensuring a joint effort by all orders of government; [3] testing and scaling innovative and agile programs; [4] prioritize areas of greatest need, such as among low-income Canadians; [5] specifically tailor its programs for adult learners; [6] providing seamless access that is easy and simple for workers. The report also recommends the establishment of a Lifelong Learning Fund to incentivize individuals and employers to increase their investments in skills development, and action by the federal and provincial governments to transform existing employment centres to provide improved practical guidance to Canadians seeking to navigate the coming labour market disruptions. The report also emphasizes the importance of improved labour market data. Finally, it also includes a review of some promising initiatives currently underway in Canada and abroad that the authors suggest are worthy of attention.

The settlement sector, across much of Canada, delivers programs on a fee-for-service basis financed by government. This arrangement has resulted in chronic underinvestment by the sector in intellectual activities such as program research, analysis and evaluation. Service provider agencies generally lack the fiscal room to conduct detailed analyses of their actions, much less to compare those actions to those of other agencies across the country. The result is that excellent local initiatives suffer fromlocked-in syndrome,' and the sector as a whole lacks an effective strategy for sharing information efficiently and for learning from each other. Both this study and an earlier companion piece maintain that there exists a shared interest by governments and by settlement organizations in strengthening the sector through investments in its capacity to analyze and innovate. The present study develops a methodology for achieving this goal and for creating a sector-led innovation strategy.