White Paper

The focus of the present report is on the level of skills held by the UK population, as proxied by formal qualifications, both historically and in terms of projections to 2020. The context is the link between higher qualification and skill levels and improvements in productivity and economic performance in an international setting. The report builds on previous analyses of skill levels presented in the Ambition 2020 reports of 2009 and 2010. The reader should bear in mind that these projections simply indicate what would happen in the future if recent trends, which themselves are based on survey observations, continue; but many things might impact on their path through to 2020 and beyond, so considerable caution is needed in using these results. This report assesses skills supply using possession of qualifications as the key measure. It is recognised that qualifications are only one, imperfect, measure of skills. Nonetheless, this analysis of the level of formal qualifications held by individuals is felt to provide a valuable insight in the UK’s skills base.

This report argues that the UK’s dangerous level of public debt means new personal tax cuts must remain off the table. Furthermore, future governments must consider measures to ensure that older people share in increasing tax burdens. The report praises the Government for phasing out the higher personal allowances for pensioners (“age-related allowances”), but urges Ministers to go further and review the exemption from paying National Insurance Contributions above State Pension Age. This tax break does not reflect the modern labour market in which age is now a less reliable indicator of need. The report also questions the future of tax relief for pensions, on the grounds that it is “expensive, poorly targeted and fails to achieve its policy objectives”.

This Concept Note is designed to provide policymakers and stakeholders across Europe with an understanding of the key concepts underpinning the relationship between work-based learning and lifelong guidance. The note suggests that lifelong guidance policies reinforce policy goals for workbased learning. Quality lifelong guidance practices support positive work-based learning experiences and contribute to the fulfilment of the different skills agendas of the European Union. In this Concept Note: i. The first and second parts describe the conceptual links between guidance and workbased learning and the policy underpinnings. ii. The second part outlines work-based learning forms across the member countries. iii. The third and final parts discuss the role of lifelong guidance as a service, policy and system to foster better and stronger outcomes at the policy and system level from workbased learning. iv. The final section develops possible future cooperation opportunities between national/ regional lifelong guidance systems and systems of national work-based learning.

The structure and organization of work are continually changing. Changes may be cyclical, reflecting economic and social conditions, including business cycles and labor market structures. Other changes, often resulting from new technologies, may be unidirectional. Whether or not the changes are temporary or permanent, employment arrangements affect worker exposures to workplace hazards and their ability to address them. In this paper, we focus on the effects on occupational safety and health (OSH) of relationships that have been described as fissured or market-mediated, including the staffing agency model, the franchised relationship, same site contracting, supply chain relationships, and contracting by a firm with many individuals. Worker safety may be affected by several factors, including economic pressures on contracted employers, the separation of control of the work environment from the employment relationship, and the short tenure of workers in some dangerous jobs. After summarizing the limited number of studies that attempt to measure the impact of these non-standard employment relationships on worker safety and health, we briefly discuss other changes in the labor market that affect OSH, and then turn to the policy and legal implications of these mediated relationships. Finally, we highlight the need for better data, safety and health surveillance, and research when employment relationships are fissured. The paper focuses on changes and strategies in the U.S. but provides some references to relevant international studies.

Earnings inequality in the United States has increased rapidly over the last three decades, but little is known about the role of firms in this trend. For example, how much of the rise in earnings inequality can be attributed to rising dispersion between firms in the average wages they pay, and how much is due to rising wage dispersion among workers within firms? Similarly, how did rising inequality affect the wage earnings of different types of workers working for the same employer—men vs. women, young vs. old, new hires vs. senior employees, and so on? To address questions like these, we begin by constructing a matched employer-employee data set for the United States using administrative records. Covering all U.S. firms between 1978 to 2012, we show that virtually all of the rise in earnings dispersion between workers is accounted for by increasing dispersion in average wages paid by the employers of these individuals. In contrast, pay differences within employers have remained virtually unchanged, a finding that is robust across industries, geographical regions, and firm size groups. Furthermore, the wage gap between the most highly paid employees within these firms (CEOs and high-level executives) and the average employee has increased only by a small amount, refuting oft-made claims that such widening gaps account for a large fraction of rising inequality in the population.

In many growth models, economic growth arises from people creating ideas, and the long-run growth rate is the product of two terms: the effective number of researchers and their research productivity. We present a wide range of evidence from various industries, products, and firms showing that research effort is rising substantially while research productivity is declining sharply. A good example is Moore's Law. The number of researchers required today to achieve the famous doubling every two years of the density of computer chips is more than 18 times larger than the number required in the early 1970s. Across a broad range of case studies at various levels of (dis)aggregation, we find that ideas — and in particular the exponential growth they imply — are getting harder and harder to find. Exponential growth results from the large increases in research effort that offset its declining productivity.

Driven by the exponential growth in computing power and the digitization of things, artificial intelligence and robotics are poised to transform the economy. While these technologies are likely to boost productivity and generate significant wealth, their potential impact on the labour market is concerning, with some estimates suggesting that nearly half of all existing jobs could be automated in the next two decades. What is almost certain is that these technologies will further increase inequality: workers with skills that are complementary to these new technologies will benefit, while those with skills that are substitutes will face dimming job prospects. The extent and speed of the transformation remains uncertain. This paper presents several possible scenarios for the future of work and draws on the Industrial Revolution to offer a historical perspective. It ends with a discussion of different policy options that could be deployed. Foremost, it highlights the urgent need for further international collaboration to broaden the tax base, both because tax avoidance is likely to become a bigger problem as wealth and income become increasingly concentrated and mobile and because of the likely need to expand the social safety net in the face of potentially massive and long-lasting disruptions.

We study how various types of machines, namely, information and communication technologies, software, and especially industrial robots, affect the demand for workers of different education, age, and gender. We do so by exploiting differences in the composition of workers across countries, industries and time. Our dataset comprises 10 high-income countries and 30 industries, which span roughly their entire economies, with annual observations over the period 1982-2005. The results suggest that software and robots reduced the demand for low and medium-skill workers, the young, and women - especially in manufacturing industries; but raised the demand for high-skill workers, older workers and men - especially in service industries. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that automation technologies, contrary to other types of capital, replace humans performing routine tasks. We also find evidence for some types of workers, especially women, having shifted away from such tasks.

Postsecondary students perceive a gap between the skills they think they will need in their future careers and those they are developing while in university or college, according to a survey conducted by the Higher Education Quality Council of Ontario (HEQCO) and eCampusOntario. The largest gaps were in creative/innovative thinking skills, business etiquette, leadership and teamwork. The Ontario government purchased in 2017 a blanket, three-year licence to online learning platform Lynda.com that provides the province’s postsecondary students with free access to the site. HEQCO partnered with eCampusOntario to evaluate how well this initiative is serving students, with a particular focus on whether access to Lynda.com can help address the perceived skills gap among students. The first step in this multi-year evaluation involved surveying students about how they perceive their skills and their level of interest in online skills development. A group of 6,360 students was recruited through the Student Life Network to complete a 10-minute online survey. The survey focused on both transferable skills (for example, problem solving, teamwork, leadership and organization) and professional skills (for example, financial literacy, data analysis, public speaking and IT skills). Some of those surveyed also participated in focus groups. The results are reported in Minding the Gap? Ontario Postsecondary Students’ Perceptions on the State of Their Skills, a new report published by HEQCO.