White Paper

The historical record and recent research into the economics of machine learning, technology adoption, and the relationship between the diffusion of robotics and employment supports an optimistic case for the future of technology and employment. As technology continues to progress, the lines separating “labor” and “leisure” will get fuzzier. It won’t likely give us good reason to fear that artificial intelligence will reduce people to jobless penury. While new technologies foreclose some opportunities, they create new ones. That has been the case for the last couple of centuries. It is not likely to change substantially.

This report provides an analysis of the labour needs of the manufacturing industry in Canada for the next 5 and 10 years. It develops a baseline projection of the labour requirements of Canadian manufacturing by occupation. The analysis covers the top 15 manufacturing regions across Canada and the main manufacturing sectors in these regions. This is the most comprehensive labour market study at this level of detail (i.e., regional, sectoral, and occupational). The 2016 edition is the second year for this research and analysis. Canada’s manufacturing regions are buffeted by specific and often unique factors. The manufacturers in each region across the country are focused on different industries and a variety of markets. These differences pose distinct challenges. But they also contain common factors and attributes that have been identified through this research and validated through the Regional Industry Committees comprised of local manufacturers in each region.

Over the past few decades, Canada’s labour requirements have changed drastically—from a need for physical labourers to a need for knowledge workers—as a result of changes in economic and social conditions that have included advances in information and communication technologies, globalization of economic activity and shifting demographics. Consequently, employers and firms are increasingly seeking skilled workers with a more sophisticated array of capabilities. Of recent concern, the current global recession has led to the deterioration of labour-market conditions in Canada and worldwide, profoundly affecting— through increased vulnerability to unemployment—the economic and social well-being of families and communities across Canada. Canada’s economic strength, as in other countries, depends on its ability to develop a skilled and flexible workforce, capable of adapting to continuous change. While Canada’s formal education is of a high standard, it alone cannot provide the conditions needed to secure the development of Canada’s talent—its human infrastructure—which is a necessary element of our country’s future prosperity.

Globally, labour markets are adapting to the impact of new technology, and the demand for skills is changing to match. This change was described by one participant at a Canadian Chamber of Commerce roundtable as, “moving from a knowledge economy to a wisdom economy.” Some economic sectors are seeing a decline in employment, while other sectors are struggling to find the workers with the skills they need to grow. This report examines the impact of technology and the implications for training systems and skills development, in light of six main questions: (1) Who is going to be replaced? How many people is this going to affect? (2) How many might retraining all of those people cost? Cam we afford it? (3) What is the upside of automation? Why would we embrace it and how? (4) How are we doing at giving people skills they need so far?; (5) Will every group in Canada be able to acquire the skills needed to be employable? What can we do about it? (6) What kinds of connections do businesses, government, educators and students need to build so they can better manage this transition? Waiting until after employees lose their jobs to automation and relying on traditional full-length programs could mean a training challenge affecting hundreds of thousands of people and costing an estimated $6-18 billion per year. But, with better measurement of the skills people have and the skills jobs demand and by making training an ongoing activity, we can cut this cost to a manageable level. Employees can build essential skills that are resistant to automation in advance and adapt to rapidly changing technology by accessing new learning mechanisms, like short duration programs, micro-credentials certification of work experience and self-directed learning. Businesses need to view employee development as a competitive edge for attracting and maintaining the best talent and raising productivity at all levels. By supporting a wide range of skills pathways, businesses can develop a culture of ongoing skills development. Educational institutions need to build on new learning pathways, expand recognition of prior experience, support self-directed learning and work in partnership with business. Collaboration models, such as program advisory committees and sector councils, can ensure technical skills taught by programs remain relevant to the workforce and support the adoption of new technology. Finally, government support for employee development requires updating funding mechanisms for training to recognize the various educational pathways and ensure quality and access. The measurement of the skills and competencies needed in the workforce, the transferability of qualifications and more flexibility for educational institutions can all support the workforce adaptation for future technology.

The new UNESCO strategy for technical and vocational education and training (TVET) for the period 2016-2021 comes at a timely moment. Much has changed since the current strategy was unfurled in 2009. The adoption of the UNESCO Education Strategy for the period 2014-2021 and the recent adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Education 2030 agenda have occurred in a context of globalization and rapid technological development, characterized by changes in economic, labour market and skills patterns. Moreover, the nature of work-occupations, workplaces and goods and services produced is changing, as are government policies and wider geo-political landscapes.

Employers say people entering the workforce just don't have the qualifications they're looking for.

This report discusses the findings of a study undertaken by Birkbeck, University of London and the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, commissioned by the UK Commission for Employment and Skills to examine the impact of higher education (HE) on the labour market experiences of graduates who studied part-time and full-time as undergraduates. Recent policy developments suggest that part-time study is central to the UK’s skills and employability agenda because it provides flexible study aimed at those already in the labour market. This matters because of the need to up-skill and re-skill the ageing working population. Furthermore, as the 2011 White Paper Higher Education: Students at the heart of the system (BIS, 2011) confirms, part-time study can further the government’s wider HE policy objectives. Specifically, it has a role in providing educational opportunities throughout people’s lives, in increasing social mobility, and in creating a more diverse HE sector responsive to the needs of employers, the economy, and students by giving students greater choice and enhancing their HE experience. To make part-time HE more affordable and accessible, for the first-time part-time undergraduates in England will be eligible for student loans to cover the costs of their tuition fees. Consequently, twice as many – around a third- of part-time undergraduates will qualify for government-funded financial support from 2012/13. Little is known about the extent to which part-time undergraduate study enhances employability, earnings, and labour market progression, unlike the much larger body of research on full-time undergraduates. To help fill some of the large gaps in our knowledge, this study assesses the impact of part-time study on the labour market experiences of graduates and compares them with those who studied full-time as undergraduates. The study analyses the Higher Education Statistics Agency’s data from the Longitudinal Destination of Leavers from Higher Education survey which follows up both full and part-time undergraduates six months and three and a half years after graduation.

Burning Glass Technologies has conducted a series of studies for Capital One on the digital skills employers demand from workers, and how to close the digital skills gap. We’ve found in the middle-skill job market, the world is increasingly divided between the jobs that demand digital skills and the ones that don’t—and the ones that don’t are falling behind. Much of the debate over technology in the workforce has focused on sophisticated skills, such as writing code for leading information technology companies. But the more significant impact on the middle-skill job market is in the humbler world of digital literacy using everyday software: spreadsheets and word processing, programs for medical billing and running computerized drill presses to build information-based careers. To a large extent, a job seeker without the ability to use this software won’t even get in the door.

American manufacturers now post more jobs for software developers than production workers, a sign that the products we make—and the methods used to make them—are increasingly driven by computer programming. As the “Internet of Things” and other computer-driven technologies raise the level in sophistication and connectivity in products, software skills have become highly prized by employers. In fact, in the manufacturing sector software developers are now second only to sales positions in terms of the total number of jobs posted.