White Paper

Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) jobs are a key contributor to economic growth and national competitiveness. Yet STEM workers are perceived to be in short supply. This paper shows that the “STEM shortage” phenomenon is explained by technological change, which introduces new job tasks and makes old ones obsolete. We find that the initially high economic return to applied STEM degrees declines by more than 50 percent in the first decade of working life. This coincides with a rapid exit of college graduates from STEM occupations. Using detailed job vacancy data, we show that STEM jobs changed especially quickly over the last decade, leading to flatter age-earnings profiles as the skills of older cohorts became obsolete. Our findings highlight the importance of technology-specific skills in explaining lifecycle returns to education, and show that STEM jobs are the leading edge of technology diffusion in the labor market.

Regardless of its success rate, prediction can open our eyes to new possibilities and prevent us from being complacent about what lies ahead. Using alternative scenarios allows policy makers and managers to draw pictures of the future which might plausibly unfold, and in doing so, develop strategies to “win” in these futures.

The labor market increasingly rewards social skills. Between 1980 and 2012, jobs requiring high levels of social interaction grew by nearly 12 percentage points as a share of the U.S. labor force. Math-intensive but less social jobs - including many STEM occupations - shrank by 3.3 percentage points over the same period. Employment and wage growth was particularly strong for jobs requiring high levels of both math skill and social skill. To understand these patterns, I develop a model of team production where workers “trade tasks” to exploit their comparative advantage. In the model, social skills reduce coordination costs, allowing workers to specialize and work together more efficiently. The model generates predictions about sorting and the relative returns to skill across occupations, which I investigate using data from the NLSY79 and the NLSY97. Using a comparable set of skill measures and covariates across survey waves, I find that the labor market return to social skills was much greater in the 2000s than in the mid 1980s and 1990s.

Waves of change are disrupting the Canadian workforce. Automation, artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, machine learning, and other technologies are revolutionizing industries, transforming workplaces, and even redefining what it means to hold a job. The pace will only gather speed. We call this transformation the Intelligence Revolution, and we believe it holds tremendous opportunities for Canada. This report is designed to provide insight into this new world of work-insight that leads to action. We aim to jumpstart a meaningful discussion among Canadian business executives, government leaders, and workers themselves not just about how to survive in the Intelligence Revolution but how to thrive in it. To this end, we outline the future-proofed capabilities Canadians will need to succeed in the Intelligence Revolution and describe a series of the new work archetypes we envision as the necessary foundation for the future of work. And finally, we offer a series of recommendations for Canadian government, business, and workers that we believe must be implemented to put us on the path to success.

Robots won’t take our jobs, but technology is changing what we do, which means employment is growing in the roles that are hardest to automate. Our ground-breaking research reveals how the human skills required to do these roles are hugely under-supplied, and while today’s jobs require us to use our heads, rather than our hands, something new is also happening.

Deloitte’s latest millennials study looks at their world view and finds many, especially in developed economies, are anxious about their future. They are concerned about a world that presents numerous threats and question their personal prospects. By JFK’s measure, at least, many millennials are not sure they can trust the promises of their respective countries. However, there are strong reasons for optimism. And, as our millennials series has consistently found, the activities of businesses and the opportunities provided to their workforces represent a platform for positive change. For businesses seeking to attract, develop, and retain millennial talent, this report offers a guide to their concerns and motivations. It reinforces the connection made between purpose and retention while outlining how increased use of flexible working arrangements and automation are likely to impact millennials’ attitudes and performance. Key findings include: Millennials in developed countries feel pessimistic, while optimism reigns in emerging markets. There are distinct differences as to what concerns millennials in each group. In the current environment, millennials appear more loyal to employers than a year ago. In a period of great uncertainty, stability is appealing, and they would be inclined to turn down offers for freelance work or as consultants. Business is viewed positively and to be behaving in an increasingly responsible manner; but millennials believe it is not fully realizing its potential to alleviate society’s biggest challenges. Businesses frequently provide opportunities for millennials to engage with “good causes,” helping young professionals to feel empowered while reinforcing positive associations between businesses’ activities and social impact. Built upon a solid, two-way exchange of trust, flexible working continues to encourage loyalty and make a significant contribution to business performance. Automation is rapidly becoming a feature of working environments. For some, it encourages creative thinking and provides opportunities to develop new skills. For others, automation poses a threat to jobs and is creating sterile workplaces.

This new work paints a positive picture: while technology has potentially contributed to the loss of approximately 800,000 lower-skilled jobs, there is equally strong evidence to suggest that it has helped to create nearly 3.5 million new higher-skilled ones in their place. Each one of these new jobs pays, on average, £10,000 more per annum than the one lost. Crucially, every nation and region of the UK has benefitted, and we estimate that this technology-driven change has added £140 billion to the UK’s economy in new wages.

A dramatic rise in enrolment at Ontario’s colleges and universities over the past two decades has done little to achieve equitable access for those students who have been traditionally underrepresented in higher education, argues a new report by the Higher Education Quality Council of Ontario (HEQCO). Decades of research has shown that first-generation students (those whose parents didn’t complete postsecondary), low-income students, Indigenous students and students with disabilities are less likely to enrol in postsecondary education, and less likely to attain a PSE credential than their peers. Successive federal and provincial governments have sought to boost participation of underrepresented students by encouraging enrolment growth, expanding student financial assistance, capping tuition fees and providing targeted funding to institutions to recruit and support these students, the report notes. The report, Redefining Access to Postsecondary Education, argues that a new approach to access is needed, one that focuses limited provincial resources on helping underrepresented students rather than continuing to expand overall enrolment. And it argues that truly effective access policies and interventions must be applied at the K-12 sector.

Futurists have long envisioned a brighter tomorrow, full of A.I. helpers and automated environments that run on the sound of our voice. Now that we stand on the edge of that reality, it’s time to realize what it requires of us to make this new world work. With immense possibilities on the horizon comes expanding responsibility. Businesses need to act now to transform their IT, workforce and security, to transform these challenges into opportunities. Recently, Dell Technologies teamed up with Institute for the Future to project into the next decades and predict how emerging technologies – such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Internet of Things (IoT) – will reshape how we live and work by 2030. With those insights, we extended IFTF’s forecasts and surveyed 3,800 business leaders from around the world to gauge their predictions and preparedness for the future.