White Paper

Transformations of work – and in particular, the role that new technologies play in this process – are often seen as one of the key challenges of our societies. Technologies affect where we work, how we work, how we are compensated, and whether and how we are employed. Next to globalisation and demographic and environmental changes, the increasing use of advanced technologies – including robotics, artificial intelligence (AI) and the automation of tasks previously done by humans – is typically portrayed as the main reason for the transformation of work. On the basis of our engagement with this topic across academic disciplines, contexts of practice, and national borders, we are convinced that shaping the future of work in our societies requires us to look at the nature and function of work. We have a collective commitment to ensure that everyone can lead a decent life. If there is ‘not enough’ paid work for everybody to afford a decent life through their earnings, then the solution cannot be - as often suggested - to ‘up-skill’ individuals so that they can better compete on the labour market. The solution, instead, needs to include a process of societal up-skilling, understood as a collective duty and commitment to find solutions to ensure dignified livelihoods for all people, whether or not they are in paid employment. Thus, this Opinion is ultimately about the future of our societies based on European values of dignity, freedom, autonomy, privacy, social equality and solidarity.

The Juncker Commission has committed to focus policies on "the key challenges ahead for our economies and for our societies" and to work across portfolios to produce "integrated, well-grounded and well explained initiatives". One of the challenges identified is "the ageing of our population". Rapid demographic ageing is not only a major societal challenge (in terms of public budgets, workforce, competitiveness and quality of life) but also a major opportunity for new jobs and growth, also referred to as the Silver Economy. In the background paper Growing the Silver Economy in Europe, an overview is provided of relevant Silver Economy related initiatives of the European Commission; a tentative narrative on the Silver Economy and an equally tentative analysis of possible EU Silver Economy actions based on existing initiatives and their potential for the generation of new jobs and growth. The paper does not propose any new initiative as such, and the proposed narrative and example actions do not constitute any commitment by the DGs involved at this stage. They serve as input for further consideration.

The Employment and Social Developments Quarterly Review provides in-depth description of recent labour market and social developments. A wide range of information sources have been used to produce this report, including Eurostat statistics, reports and survey data from the Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs. The Review confirms overall positive labour market developments. Total employment hit a new record of 239.3 million people in the third quarter of 2018. The largest share of new jobs is permanent and full-time jobs. In the second quarter of 2018, permanent jobs had increased by 2.7 million compared with the same quarter of the previous year. The employment rate continued rising towards the Europe 2020 target and reached 73.2 % in the second quarter of 2018.

How to measure skill mismatch is a core concern. Three alternative methods have been used: systematic job evaluation (objective measure), worker self-assessment (subjective measure) and empirical method (where data sets do not contain a direct question on the phenomenon). Each method has weaknesses. The report argues that over and underskilling may be superior measures to over and undereducation, especially if we are concerned with potential welfare losses. Skills obsolescence can be measured in several ways, but little consensus exists on which method is the most appropriate, while few data sets contain questions that can be used to assess skills obsolescence. Good data are probably the most crucial prerequisite to supporting timely, effective and evidence-based skill mismatch policies. The current shortcomings of data sets may take years to remedy. Ideally, new matched employer-employee panel data, with information on labour demand and supply, should be developed. Collecting these data is very expensive and several years of data are needed for full research potential. Individual or household data can be used instead, but with a comprehensive coverage of the various elements of mismatch, which is not currently the case. Remedying existing data sets is cheaper than developing new ones. An alternative cost-effective method for collecting Europe-wide data on mismatch could be a new module containing questions on mismatch, possibly introduced in several existing European large panel surveys at regular but infrequent intervals (such as once every three years). We support the view that alternative means of data collection should also be considered for issues that may be too detailed to be informed through conventional interviews.

The economic crisis has had a dramatic impact on the European labour market. Even in the best case, it is likely that employment growth in Europe will only recover gradually over the next decade. But there is also good news for Europe’s employment prospects. According to Cedefop’s latest forecast of the skills demand and supply in Europe, around seven million more jobs will be generated by 2020 (new jobs created less jobs lost elsewhere) than there are today – despite the recession. In addition it is estimated that another 73 million job opportunities will be created due to the need to replace workers who, for example, retire or change jobs. Consequently, the total number of job opportunities over the next decade is projected to rise to around 80 million. The question is, do we have the right skills to fill them?

There is a skill gap between today’s high school graduates and the needs of employers related to the demands of the 21st century. These skills, frequently referred to as 21st century skills, include students’ ability to problem solve, communicate, be creative and innovative and work in teams. This multi-site case study explores how leaders in four public school districts in the EdLeader Network utilize curriculum and assessment systems in support of developing 21st century skills in students. Key findings of the study include the importance of establishing a common definition and understanding of 21st century skills early in district work, utilizing a group of “early adopters” or “innovators” to help build capacity in administrators and staff, and working to integrate 21st century skills into existing curriculum and assessment structures. Process findings highlight the interconnectedness of capacity building, systems work, and translation and implementation of 21st century skill knowledge by district administrators and staff. Results suggested integrating 21st century skills into curriculum systems is a precursor to systematically assessing and reporting on the skills. A limitation to the study was the focus of EdLeader Network districts, thus the results are not generalizable. Further research is needed to more deeply understand the processes, resources and tools utilized by districts doing this work, without the support inherent in the EdLeader Network.

The future development of skills – both skill needs and supply – on European labour markets ranks high on the current policy agenda. The year 2008 was particularly marked with an increased political awareness of anticipation of skill needs by various recent policy documents calling for assessment of future skill requirements at both national and European levels. Cedefop, with support of its expert network Skillsnet, has been proactive in this respect and delivered, at the beginning of 2008, a first pan-European forecast of occupational skill needs up to 2015 for EU-25, Norway and Switzerland. The results were presented for the first time at Cedefop’s Agora conference ‘Skills for Europe’s future’ organised on 21-22 February 2008 in Thessaloniki. Other objectives of the conference were to discuss the findings and future network plans with policy-makers, social partners, practitioners and all other relevant stakeholders. It also aimed to disseminate other information on future skill needs collected and shared among experts and researchers in Cedefop’s network Skillsnet; these are summarised in the proceedings.

Decisive action on digital skills is the most effective way to secure a greater share of the world’s value added work and long-term economic stability. Based on up-to-date, authoritative research, this report demonstrates why this is the case, sets out a compelling vision for the UK’s future in a digital world, and identifies the action needed in order to realise that vision.

The current wave of technological change based on advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) has created widespread fear of job losses and further rises in inequality. This paper discusses the rationale for these fears, highlighting the specific nature of AI and comparing previous waves of automation and robotization with the current advancements made possible by a wide-spread adoption of AI. It argues that large opportunities in terms of increases in productivity can ensue, including for developing countries, given the vastly reduced costs of capital that some applications have demonstrated and the potential for productivity increases, especially among the low-skilled. At the same time, risks in the form of further increases in inequality need to be addressed if the benefits from AI-based technological progress are to be broadly shared. For this, skills policy are necessary but not sufficient. In addition, new forms of regulating the digital economy are called for that prevent further rises in market concentration, ensure proper data protection and privacy and help share the benefits of productivity growth through a combination of profit sharing, (digital) capital taxation and a reduction in working time. The paper calls for a moderately optimistic outlook on the opportunities and risks from artificial intelligence, provided policymakers and social partners take the particular characteristics of these new technologies into account.