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Reference

Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends

Between the 1980s and the 2000s, the largest ever positive labour supply shock occurred, resulting from demographic trends and from the inclusion of China and eastern Europe into the World Trade Organization. This led to a shift in manufacturing to Asia, especially China; a stagnation in real wages; a collapse in the power of private sector trade unions; increasing inequality within countries, but less inequality between countries; deflationary pressures; and falling interest rates. This shock is now reversing. As the world ages, real interest rates will rise, inflation and wage growth will pick up and inequality will fall. What is the biggest challenge to our thesis? The hardest prior trend to reverse will be that of low interest rates, which have resulted in a huge and persistent debt overhang, apart from some deleveraging in advanced economy banks. Future problems may now intensify as the demographic structure worsens, growth slows, and there is little stomach for major inflation. Are we in a trap where the debt overhang enforces continuing low interest rates, and those low interest rates encourage yet more debt finance? There is no silver bullet, but we recommend policy measures to switch from debt to equity finance.
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Exploring employer behaviour in relation to investors in people

Key findings include: IIP was more likely to be seen as a business improvement tool among Human Resources (HR) staff, whereas senior managers tended to view the Standard as a more narrowly focussed framework for HR colleagues. The HR function tended to recommend, own and lead IIP accreditation, but senior managers, directors or the chief executive tended to make the final decision about whether to (re)accredit. Long-term accredited organisations understood the purpose of IIP and used the Standard to manage change, reflective of a continuous improvement philosophy. These employers adapted how IIP is applied to their organisation, and in doing so continued to make it relevant and ensure the longevity of its value. Previously accredited IIP employers felt IIP provided the firm with an initial one-off benefit, but had run its useful course within an organisation. For previously accredited employers, consideration needs to be given to how employers can continue to derive value from the assessment process. De-committed employers reported that the amount of work required implementing processes for a successful IIP accreditation were substantial. Some businesses may need additional support in enabling them to recognise and make use of IIP in tough business conditions, in a variety of circumstances.
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Technology, automation and employment: Will this time be different?

This essay series re-examines the history of technological advancement, the impact on jobs and industry, and the likely outcomes for Canada in the future. Western societies have exhibited a continuing worry that automation, particularly automation associated with artificial intelligence, will lead to massive unemployment and the impoverishment of large segments of society. In different epochs, technological change has triggered concerns and social protests. Those concerns date back to the early stages of the industrial revolution and the use of coal-fired weaving machines to automate textile manufacturing, and they continue through to the present-day and adoption of computerized algorithms that “learn” how to automate tasks through the use of data-driven “machine learning.” In fact, the history of automation affirms that concerns about technological change causing widespread unemployment are misguided
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Future humanities workforce literature review

With the Future Humanities Workforce project, the emphasis is on the question of how best to future-proof the humanities research workforce, as well as strategies to ensure its ongoing resilience and vitality. The project consists of three inter-related streams of enquiry: support systems for early career researchers in the humanities; the skills, capabilities and knowledge that will be needed by the future humanities workforce, including digital and data literacy; and workforce diversity and gender equity. These areas are all critical to the ongoing prosperity of humanities disciplines in Australia.
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Artificial intelligence and employment: Will history repeat?

The purpose of this essay is to assess the argument that AI’s effects on employment will be significantly different from previous episodes of automation. Specifically, we review some expert opinion on how producers are likely to use AI, as well as the limited available evidence on how AI has affected employment up until now. We also consider whether there are reasons to believe that AI will be adopted at a much faster rate than other major innovations so that retraining workers for occupations that are complementary to AI is impractical. Our broad conclusion is that future employment effects and adoption rates of AI are unlikely to be much diff rent from the broad historical experiences of other General-Purpose Technologies (GPTs).
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Labour supply of older people in advance economies: The impact of changes to statutory retirement ages

A decomposition of changes to participation rates of 55-to-74-year-olds between 2002 and 2017 based on an estimated equation attributes more than two thirds of the median increase (of 10.9 percentage points) to rising life expectancy and educational attainment. About 1 percentage point is attributable to changes in statutory retirement ages, although part of the reason these effects are not larger is that in most countries, statutory retirement ages have not kept pace with life expectancy. Although difficult to incorporate in the empirical framework, evidence of falling disability pension rolls and reduced sensitivity of old-age participation to the level of unemployment suggests that the tightening of alternative early retirement pathways through unemployment or disability schemes has been a major factor in the turnaround in the participation rate of older workers. Projections indicate that participation rates for 55-to-74-year-olds should keep rising through 2030, by 3.4 percentage points for the median country. Rising life expectancy and educational attainment are projected to make the largest contributions, more than compensating for the negative contribution of population ageing in most countries.
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The value of skills: An evidence review

The Value of Skills: An Evidence Review shows that prosperity depends on employment and productivity growth and that skills are an essential part of achieving higher levels of both. Skills are of economic value to individuals as workers; to the organisations that employ them; and to the country as a whole through greater productivity and competitiveness. There are also considerable social benefits that accrue to individuals and communities which aid the development of a more equitable and better functioning society. The Value of Skills helps to make 'the business case' for individuals, employers and governments to invest in skills and training.
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Academic success advising: The impact on non-traditional undergraduate adult learners

This study examined the impact of academic success advising and its impact on non-traditional undergraduate adult learners. The purpose of this study was to determine which factors and characteristics play a part in academic advisors helping adult learners achieve program success. Academic achievement (GPA), student satisfaction, and academic decision making were analyzed and examined to see if there was a significant difference between two groups of adult learners.
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Sector skills insights: Retail

This report considers the current situation of the UK retail sector, the challenges it faces over the medium-term and the implications for skills. The intention is to provide a summary of the extent to which the performance challenges faced by the sector can be addressed through skill development and thereby bring about growth and contribute to the recovery of the UK economy.