{"id":127098,"date":"2020-08-11T18:03:32","date_gmt":"2020-08-11T22:03:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fsc-ccf.ca\/references\/2050-the-future-of-work-findings-of-an-international-delphi-study-of-the-millennium-project-2\/"},"modified":"2020-08-11T18:03:32","modified_gmt":"2020-08-11T22:03:32","slug":"2050-the-future-of-work-findings-of-an-international-delphi-study-of-the-millennium-project-2","status":"publish","type":"reference","link":"https:\/\/fsc-ccf.ca\/fr\/references\/2050-the-future-of-work-findings-of-an-international-delphi-study-of-the-millennium-project-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2050: The future of work &#8211; Findings of an international Delphi-study of the millennium project"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>La premi\u00e8re question pos\u00e9e par Delphi concernait la mesure extr\u00eamement controvers\u00e9e du ch\u00f4mage redout\u00e9e ou attendue de la transformation technologique. Presque \u00e0 l&#8217;unanimit\u00e9, et ind\u00e9pendamment de l&#8217;\u00e2ge des r\u00e9pondants ou de quelle r\u00e9gion ils sont venus, les experts anticipaient une 6 de pour cent le taux de ch\u00f4mage en hausse \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e9chelle mondiale en moyenne de aujourd&#8217;hui environ (Allen 2015) \u00e0 11 pour cent en 2020, avec une hausse continue jusqu&#8217;\u00e0 24 pour cent en 2050. 12 2050: L&#8217;AVENIR DU TRAVAIL. Cependant, il est important de se rappeler que les chiffres ci-dessus sont toutes les moyennes des r\u00e9ponses. Certains r\u00e9pondants pr\u00e9voient un taux de ch\u00f4mage allant jusqu&#8217;\u00e0 50 pour cent d&#8217;ici \u00e0 2050 ou m\u00eame un \u00e9tat de \u00ab ch\u00f4mage presque totale \u00bb. De m\u00eame, plus les r\u00e9pondants ont l&#8217;exp\u00e9rience avec les pr\u00e9visions, les estimations plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es leurs sont lanc\u00e9es. Les attentes des experts moins exp\u00e9riment\u00e9s que dans la mesure du taux de ch\u00f4mage pr\u00e9vu \u00e9taient en moyenne de 21 pour cent tandis que les plus exp\u00e9riment\u00e9s d&#8217;entre eux nivel\u00e9es \u00e0 27 pour cent. De m\u00eame, les experts avec plus de comp\u00e9tences dans les domaines de l&#8217;intelligence artificielle et le d\u00e9veloppement technologique ont \u00e9galement fait des estimations plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es (par exemple, les r\u00e9pondants ayant une plus grande expertise ont estim\u00e9 que le taux de ch\u00f4mage mondial \u00e0 14 ans, pas 11, pour cent en 2020). En d&#8217;autres termes, plus les r\u00e9pondants \u00e9taient au courant de pr\u00e9dire l&#8217;avenir et l&#8217;\u00e9volution de la technologie, plus les estimations du ch\u00f4mage \u00e9taient attendus. Traduit a\u0300 l'aide de Google Translate<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La premi\u00e8re question pos\u00e9e par Delphi concernait la mesure extr\u00eamement controvers\u00e9e du ch\u00f4mage redout\u00e9e ou attendue de la transformation technologique. Presque \u00e0 l&#8217;unanimit\u00e9, et ind\u00e9pendamment de l&#8217;\u00e2ge des r\u00e9pondants ou de quelle r\u00e9gion ils sont venus, les experts anticipaient une 6 de pour cent le taux de ch\u00f4mage en hausse \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e9chelle mondiale en moyenne de aujourd&#8217;hui environ (Allen 2015) \u00e0 11 pour cent en 2020, avec une hausse continue jusqu&#8217;\u00e0 24 pour cent en 2050. 12 2050: L&#8217;AVENIR DU TRAVAIL. Cependant, il est important de se rappeler que les chiffres ci-dessus sont toutes les moyennes des r\u00e9ponses. Certains r\u00e9pondants pr\u00e9voient un taux de ch\u00f4mage allant jusqu&#8217;\u00e0 50 pour cent d&#8217;ici \u00e0 2050 ou m\u00eame un \u00e9tat de \u00ab ch\u00f4mage presque totale \u00bb. De m\u00eame, plus les r\u00e9pondants ont l&#8217;exp\u00e9rience avec les pr\u00e9visions, les estimations plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es leurs sont lanc\u00e9es. Les attentes des experts moins exp\u00e9riment\u00e9s que dans la mesure du taux de ch\u00f4mage pr\u00e9vu \u00e9taient en moyenne de 21 pour cent tandis que les plus exp\u00e9riment\u00e9s d&#8217;entre eux nivel\u00e9es \u00e0 27 pour cent. De m\u00eame, les experts avec plus de comp\u00e9tences dans les domaines de l&#8217;intelligence artificielle et le d\u00e9veloppement technologique ont \u00e9galement fait des estimations plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es (par exemple, les r\u00e9pondants ayant une plus grande expertise ont estim\u00e9 que le taux de ch\u00f4mage mondial \u00e0 14 ans, pas 11, pour cent en 2020). En d&#8217;autres termes, plus les r\u00e9pondants \u00e9taient au courant de pr\u00e9dire l&#8217;avenir et l&#8217;\u00e9volution de la technologie, plus les estimations du ch\u00f4mage \u00e9taient attendus. [googletranslate_fr]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","reference-tag":[],"reference-type":[436],"class_list":["post-127098","reference","type-reference","status-publish","hentry","reference-type-white-paper"],"acf":{"citation":"Daheim, C. and Wintermann, O. (2018). 2050: The future of work - Findings of an international Delphi-study of the millennium project. G\u00fctersloh, Germany: Bertelsmann Stiftung. Retrieved from https:\/\/www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de\/fileadmin\/files\/BSt\/Publikationen\/GrauePublikationen\/BST_Delphi_E_03lay.pdf.","authors":"Daheim, C. and Wintermann, O.","org":"Bertelsmann Stiftung","year":"2018","title_fr":null,"editors_hidden":"","publication":"","publication_fr":null,"volume":"","issue":"","Series":"","SeriesNumber":"","page_range":"","publisher_city":"G\u00fctersloh","publisher_state":"Germany","publisher":"Bertelsmann Stiftung","abstract_en":null,"abstract_fr":null,"keywords":"","paywall":"0","doi":"","isbn":"","url":"https:\/\/www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de\/fileadmin\/files\/BSt\/Publikationen\/GrauePublikationen\/BST_Delphi_E_03lay.pdf","url_fr":null,"url_amazon":"","TRACK":"0"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>2050: The future of work - Findings of an international Delphi-study of the millennium project - Future Skills Centre \u2022 Centre des Comp\u00e9tences futures<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fsc-ccf.ca\/fr\/references\/2050-the-future-of-work-findings-of-an-international-delphi-study-of-the-millennium-project-2\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/fsc-ccf.ca\\\/fr\\\/references\\\/2050-the-future-of-work-findings-of-an-international-delphi-study-of-the-millennium-project-2\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/fsc-ccf.ca\\\/fr\\\/references\\\/2050-the-future-of-work-findings-of-an-international-delphi-study-of-the-millennium-project-2\\\/\",\"name\":\"2050: The future of work - Findings of an international Delphi-study of the millennium project - Future Skills Centre \u2022 Centre des Comp\u00e9tences futures\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/fsc-ccf.ca\\\/fr\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2020-08-11T22:03:32+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/fsc-ccf.ca\\\/fr\\\/references\\\/2050-the-future-of-work-findings-of-an-international-delphi-study-of-the-millennium-project-2\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/fsc-ccf.ca\\\/fr\\\/references\\\/2050-the-future-of-work-findings-of-an-international-delphi-study-of-the-millennium-project-2\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/fsc-ccf.ca\\\/fr\\\/references\\\/2050-the-future-of-work-findings-of-an-international-delphi-study-of-the-millennium-project-2\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/fsc-ccf.ca\\\/fr\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"References\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/fsc-ccf.ca\\\/fr\\\/references\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"2050: The future of work &#8211; 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